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| Iran power generation will grow 25% by 2020: BMI |
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 Tehran — Business Monitor International (BMI) in its new report titled “Iran Power Report Q3 2011” forecasts a 25.5% increase in Iranian electricity generation between 2010 and 2020. BMI forecasts that Iran will account for 14.79% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2015, with a broadly balanced market if nuclear generation plans proceed uninterrupted. Business Monitor International stated, Iran’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 192TWh, or 16.85% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 14.45% of regional thermal generation. Gas will have been the dominant fuel in Iran in 2010, accounting for an estimated 57.8% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 40.4% and hydro with a 0.8% share of PED, the report said, adding that nuclear power should make its first contribution during 2011. BMI now forecasts that Iran’s real GDP growth will average 2.00% a year between 2010 and 2015, with 2011 growth assumed to be 1.30%. The population is expected to expand from 73.9mn to 78.6mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 31% and 5% respectively. According to the report, Iran’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 161TWh in 2010 to 179TWh by 2015, providing a broadly balanced market, assuming 2.2% average annual growth in electricity generation. The success of the nuclear program will have a major influence on generation growth. Between 2010 and 2020 BMI forecasts a 25.5% increase in Iranian electricity generation. This equates to 11.9% in 2015-2020, down from 12.2% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to decrease from 14.4% in 2010-2015 to 12.6%, representing 28.8% for the entire forecast period. From 2011, the availability of nuclear power is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by just 19% between 2010 and 2020.   Socialize this Subscribe to our RSS feed to stay in touch and receive all of TT updates right in your feed reader
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