NATO's long-term exit strategy: Building Afghan security forces

BRATISLAVA (AFP) -- Whatever strategy NATO uses to fight insurgents in Afghanistan, its exit strategy is centered on building the Afghan army and police until they can ensure security, top officials and officers say.

Even if NATO takes a concerted counter-insurgency approach to try to steal the initiative away from the Taliban, Al-Qaeda and their backers, building up national security forces will take at least four years.

“There are some basic physical limitations as to how quickly you can recruit, educate and train Afghan soldiers, so it makes sense to expect a four or five year time perspective,” NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has said.

During that time, as efforts are made to build the Afghan army from around 94,000 troops today to 240,000 and the police from 92,000 to 160,000 officers, international personnel and hundreds of trainers will be needed.

The plan is to achieve those goals at the end of 2013 but growing public opposition to NATO's most challenging mission ever is weakening political resolve and it is unclear how many allies will want to commit long-term.

“We recognize there are challenges and risks with making even that kind of timeline,” said U.S. General Richard Formica, who leads the “transition” effort from international dependence to stand-alone Afghan security.

“It's going to require trainers, dollars and infrastructure to build the Afghan security forces,” he warned, in a video-conference from Kabul.

Once their basic training is completed, Afghan army recruits are supported by NATO trainers and mentors -- teams of up to 30 international soldiers who deploy with units for a minimum of six months, when possible.

More than 50 teams are currently deployed, but almost 70 will be needed to get the army up to 134,000 soldiers by October 2010, with scores more required to hit the final 240,000 target by late 2013.

Police training is even more complex and time consuming, especially in a country where up to two in three people are illiterate.

“Police officers have to learn how to read, to write, the legislation, they have to learn the constitution, they are not under command all the time, they are alone on the street,” said the head of the EU police mission.

“The tasks of the police go from helping with dogs, to crossing the street, to arresting people, to act on a crime scene, to know how to act on a case with suicide bombers,” said the EUPOL chief, Kai Vittrup. “It's a huge, huge task.”

Typically training takes eight weeks, but EUPOL officers say at least four months are needed to bring recruits up to the point where they can read enough to carry out the most basic tasks.

While policing is tough -- scores of officers have been killed by suicide bombers or at check points -- finding international trainers is a whole other obstacle.

The United States uses the military to teach police to protect themselves, while private security contractor Dyncorp handles law enforcement training using retired U.S. police officers.

EUPOL had around 245 international staff in Afghanistan in July, around the time its numbers were meant to stand at 400, while half a dozen European nations have decided to use paramilitary gendarmes to do the job.

But progress here has been slow. The gendarmes have only begun arriving in Afghanistan, and Formica said this month that his team had still not been in contact with them.

And police officers just can't be plucked off street corners in European capitals. Few want to go, and processing of those that do takes time.

As NATO defense ministers meet in Bratislava to debate the new approach to Afghanistan, Rasmussen said he would be urging them to focus on the training operation.

“I will be pushing ministers hard to fully resource it with trainers, equipment and money,” he said.



Photo:

New NATO plan in Afghanistan intends to educate and train Afghan armed force until 2013 to replace foreign military and police.

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