U.S. shift on peace talks increases Abbas isolation
By Tobias Buck

The latest shift in U.S. policy towards the Middle East peace process has delivered a fresh blow to the standing of Mahmoud Abbas, leaving the Palestinian leader increasingly isolated as he battles conflicting political pressures at home and abroad.

The president of the Palestinian Authority has already seen his poll ratings fall sharply, largely in response to the botched handling of a UN inquiry into the recent Gaza war.

He has made no progress towards ending a fierce power struggle with the Islamist Hamas group that has severely weakened his authority. Since March this year, Abbas has also had to deal with a rightwing Israeli government that is markedly more hawkish than its predecessor on issues such as peace talks with the Palestinians and Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank.

Until now, Abbas could at least rely on the backing of the Obama administration for one of his key positions - his insistence that Israel freeze settlement construction in the occupied West Bank as a condition for starting peace talks. That, however, is no longer the case. In a move that infuriated Palestinian officials, Hillary Clinton, the U.S. secretary of state, made clear on Saturday that Washington wants peace talks to start “as soon as possible”, even without a settlement freeze.

Officials close to Abbas said the move had delivered a blow both to him personally and to his long-standing policy favoring a negotiated settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“It harms Abu Mazen ( Abbas) and it puts the peace process in great danger,” said Nimmer Hammad, a senior adviser to the president, who warned the Palestinian Authority would now come under pressure to harden its stance. “There is no doubt that we have to reassess our position after what Hillary Clinton said,” he added.

Ghassan Khatib, the director of the Palestinian government's media centre, said: “This (Palestinian) leadership has gambled on the peace process - so whenever the peace process is not working, then life becomes more difficult for the leadership.”

The U.S. change of heart comes at a particularly sensitive time for Abbas. Only a week earlier, the Palestinian leader ended months of speculation by announcing that presidential and parliamentary elections would finally take place on January 24.

The move is risky because Abbas and his Palestinian Authority only control one half of the Palestinian territories, the West Bank. The Gaza Strip has been under the control of his Hamas rivals since June 2007. The group has firmly rejected Abbas's call for elections, arguing that the president has already lost his legitimacy and has no right to schedule a vote without Hamas's agreement. In the absence of the Islamists' support, it is hard to see how the 1.5m Gazans could take part in the elections.

Abbas's best hope is that Egyptian-sponsored reconciliation talks between Hamas and his own Fatah movement will produce an agreement and clear the way for elections across the Palestinian territories. If the talks remain deadlocked, however, he will be forced to either abandon the vote altogether or hold elections only in the West Bank and East Beit-ul-Moqaddas - a move that would further deepen the Palestinian schism.

Hammad conceded that Abbas had been left with no good choices. “Without elections, the terms of the president and of the legislative council would have expired. We had to go for what was less damaging.”

If the elections indeed go ahead - and both Abbas and Hamas decide to run - he is likely to face a close fight. The latest polls, published last month by the JMCC think-tank in Ramallah, give the president the narrowest of leads (16.8 percent against 16 percent) over Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader. Things look better for his Fatah party, which is forecast to win 40 percent in the parliamentary elections, against 19 percent for Hamas.

The JMCC poll found that the share of Palestinians who express confidence in their president has eroded sharply, dropping from 18 percent in June to 12 percent in October. With weakening support at home and an election to fight early next year, analysts say Abbas may be forced to harden his stance towards Israel and the U.S. in order to regain ground. Against that background, a resumption of peace talks in the coming months appears less and less likely.

(Source: ft.com

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