The question is not if Abbas will run, but where?
By Fareed Mahdy

ISTANBUL -- To ask if Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will finally run or not in the Jan. 24, 2010 elections, is like putting a tree before the eyes pretending to hide the jungle. What matters is where Abbas, the Palestinians and the whole Middle East are heading to from now on.

Abbas announced on Nov. 5 that he has “no desire” to stand in the forthcoming elections, which date he has fixed unilaterally, ignoring an Egyptian-sponsored agreement between him and Hamas to postpone the vote until next June.

Hamas reacted announcing that it will no take part in the elections and will not hold them in Gaza. Hamas won the January 25, 2006 elections, through which 77.7% of all Palestinian voters, not only in Gaza, elected it to rule them with a majority of 72 seats in the 132-seat Parliament.

---The U.S. doublespeak ---

Abbas explained that his “no desire” to seek re-election is due to Washington's misleading doublespeak in the Middle East.

In fact, while President Barack Obama repeatedly called (upon) Tel Aviv to freeze its illegal settlement activities, so as to launch a U.S.-sponsored negotiation leading to a Palestinian state alongside Israel, his secretary of state Hilary Clinton has just blessed Israeli settlements' policy, while saying to Palestinians and Arabs that these are just “illegitimate”.

Abbas pretended to appear clear in his “no desire” to run. “This decision is not a kind of compromise or a maneuver,” he said. But most Middle East analysts received this statement with great skepticism if not deep suspicion.

----Succeeding Abbas? Not an issue-----

Significantly enough, Abbas announced “no desire” to run in the coming elections was immediately “welcomed” by Hilary Clinton who said she looked forward to working with him in “any new capacity”.

Here, three key questions jumped to the minds of Middle East commentators. The first is why Clinton was so fast in taking it for granted that Abbas will not run?

According to well-informed Middle East sources, Abbas does not fit any longer in the U.S. political shift. He has lost most of his political weight and prestige, and he is now more aware than ever that his ‘moderate’ policy and acceptance of all Israeli and U.S. decisions, has led nowhere.

In fact, only hours before Abbas' announcement, his chief negotiator Saeb Erekat said that it was time for Palestinian president “to tell his people the truth” -- that there is “no hope for a two-state solution”.

The second question is who would succeed Abbas? There would be already some candidates, with Salam Fayyad, Palestinian prime minister since 2007, positioned on top of the list.

This U.S. educated and International Monetary Fund trained economist and politician has reportedly been the real mind behind Abbas policies.

Otherwise, Israel might release some Palestinian prisoners, among whom it would include a couple of Palestinian political leaders now in its prisons, as a way to provide selected, adequate candidates to succeed Abbas.

The third question is what kind of “new capacity” Clinton foresees for Abbas? The answer could well be either that Abbas is appointed secretary general of the Arab League, succeeding current Amr Mousa whose name is now circulating in Cairo as a potential presidential candidate in the 2010 Egyptian elections.

Or that Abbas keeps his chairs as chairman of his movement Fatah and as chairman of Palestinian Liberation Organizations (PLO).

In the first hypothesis, Washington and Tel Aviv would be happy to have in the Arab League top post a less controversial and more easy-going man than Musa.

In the second, Abbas would be useful to help finally implement U.S. and Israeli plans to ‘finish’ with Hamas, in view of his personal hatred towards it and his strong desire of revenge against this movement, which clamorously defeated him in the 2006 elections.

In any case, it would not be surprising that Abbas is ‘persuaded’ to stay in his chair for some months, maybe until June.

---What next?----

Now back to the Middle East political jungle. The current scenario could not be darker for the Palestinians. With the support of Washington and its Arab “allies and friends” among totalitarian regimes, Israel managed to split the Palestinian occupied territories into two net parts.

One is Gaza, where its plans to erase Hamas from the political stage are expected to conclude in a dramatic success. In fact, in the midst of Israel's lasting iron siege on Gaza, nobody in the region hopes that 1.5 millions Gazans can further survive without food, fuel, medicines, or water.

The other part is the West Bank. Thanks to Abbas' so-called ‘moderate’ policies and unconditional availability to accept more and more concessions to Washington, Tel Aviv and their Arab allies' harsh conditions, Palestinian UN-backed “inalienable rights” are now more far away than ever.

Abbas may have to stay in his chair as president of the Palestinian Authority for some months. If not, somebody from his entourage will have to keep the chair warm for a while.

This would be all what the U.S., Israel and many Arab regimes need to accelerate the final, terminal agony of Palestinian hopes.

(Source: indepthnews.net

   Print Version     |        Back    |     Send To Friend