Abandoning recent threats to raise interest rates, the European Central Bank hinted Thursday that it would soon follow the Federal Reserve’s lead and cut them.

The European bank said a cooling United States economy and financial market turbulence were taking a toll on the 15-nation eurozone. That assessment, given after the bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 4 percent, appears to pave the way for a lowering of rates later this year.

Just last month, the bank’s president, Jean-Claude Trichet, threatened to “pre-emotively” raise borrowing costs. At the time, he fretted that labor unions would seek wage deals that combined with higher energy costs would raise inflation. On Thursday, he sounded more cautious.

“While the economic fundamentals of the euro area are sound, incoming data have confirmed that the risks surrounding the outlook for economic activity lie to the downside,” Trichet said.

After the Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark rate twice in late January, the European bank was criticized for refusing to consider whether easier credit would benefit Europe. Growth on the Continent is under pressure from a seemingly imminent American recession, a strong euro and high oil prices. Business confidence surveys and other data point toward a slowdown.

Yet as recently as two weeks ago, Trichet emphasized the bank’s commitment to fighting inflation, suggesting that it would not back off its threat to raise rates. That stance now seems to have shifted.

“It’s equivalent to unlocking the rate-cut door and nudging it slightly open,” said Julian Callow, the chief Europe economist at Barclays Capital in London. “The bias is for lower rates now.”

Bank watchers are betting that the bank will ease rates in April or May, with an outside chance that it will act next month.

“What the E.C.B. is not willing to do is engage in the very aggressive risk management that the Fed does,” said David Mackie, chief Europe economist in London for JPMorgan Chase. “They are not persuaded that it is appropriate for Europe.”

Two months after revealing that some members of the bank’s rate-setting body wanted to raise rates, Trichet said Thursday that the tone of the discussion had changed. “There was no call for increase of rates or decrease of rates,” he said. Although the bank’s primary mandate is to combat inflation, it has some flexibility to consider the growth outlook, economists said.

Inflation is now over 3 percent, well above the bank’s target of less than 2 percent, but that number is expected to decline as increases in food and oil prices taper off. Slower growth, whatever the reason for it, would slacken demand and eventually push up unemployment. With consumer purchasing power under pressure, companies would find little room to pass on higher energy and commodity prices.

Indeed, Trichet gave a vital signal when he said expansion in the euro area seemed to be proceeding “on the lower side of growth potential.” An economy’s growth potential is the rate at which it begins generating rising inflation.

The Bank of England, fighting more immediate problems in a country closely tied to the American economy, cut its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point, to 5.25 percent. It was the bank’s second such move in two months as it struggled to contain a downturn that began with declining housing prices but has spread to consumer spending.

Inflation in Britain is expected to accelerate despite a sharp downturn in the economy, mainly because of higher utility and food bills and a weaker pound.

Inflation, now at 2.1 percent, could outstrip the target of 3 percent this year, economists said. That would require the bank’s governor, Mervyn A. King, to explain in writing to the government why inflation has exceeded the bank’s goal — a mandate created when the bank was given independence in 1997.

“The bank is easing interest rates in light of softening demand, but it cannot accelerate that given the situation with inflation,” said Alan Clarke, an economist in London with BNP Paribas.

Though the European Central Bank’s shift is bound to draw accusations that it has been slow to act compared with the Fed, some analysts suggested that the bank was responding sensibly. The Fed is trying to pre-empt a recession, or the worst aspects of it, they noted. Aggressive moves may be smart in a country with a collapsing housing sector and rising unemployment, but they are perhaps unsuited to Europe’s less dire conditions.

Trichet shrugged off criticism that the bank is “behind the curve,” a phrase often heard at the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “I must confess that central banks are used to hearing that from time to time,” he said.

(Source: New York Times)