By Hanif  Ghaffari

The definitive decision of the Social Democrats in Germany

October 2, 2017

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is now thinking of forming a coalition government in her country. It seems difficult to deal with the situation.

On the other side, the Social-Democrats are deliberately watching the political situation in Germany. The Social Democrats in the recent general election in Germany accepted a tough defeat. They were able to make only about 20% of the public vote. Under such circumstances, the Social Democratic Party has two ways ahead: one in the coalition government with Merkel and the other being the main opposition party.

The German chancellor’s centre-right Christian Democrat-led alliance took 33% of the vote in recent election – its worst result since 1949 but enough to remain the largest force in parliament. The centre-left Social Democrats – Merkel’s government partners since 2013 in a “grand coalition” – also suffered their worst post-war result, taking 21%. Alternative für Deutschland secured 13%, marking the first time in almost six decades that an openly nationalist party will enter the Bundestag.The elections have left an unprecedented number of parties jostling for influence in the next parliament. The pro-business FDP, leftwing Die Linke and the Green party will also crowd into the Bundestag’s plenary chamber – a first since the introduction of a 5% hurdle for parliamentary seats in 1953.

Social Democratic Party MP Martin Schulz announced after the election that the Social Democratic Party would not be a coalition with the Christian Democrats. However, some German political analysts believe that Social Democrats are still the best option to form a coalition with the Christian Democrats. If this happens, the Social Democrats will repeat the 2013 experience again.

At that time, the Social Democrats also failed in the election. However, Merkel eventually had to ask them to form a coalition government.

The Social-Democratic Party must now make a tough decision. If the Social-Democratic Party joins the coalition government, then Far- right in Germany will become the main opposition party in the country. An issue that could lead to an increase in the far right's votes in next elections.

Merke will soon begin negotiations with the Social Democratic Party to form a coalition government. This is despite the fact that the Social Democratic Party officials have not yet reached a conclusion about the participation or lack of participation in the coalition government.

After Merkel's relative victory in the German general election, many analysts of the country's political affairs announced the possibility of forming a Jamaica coalition (the coalition of Christian parties, Liberal Democrats and the Greens). However, the leaders of the Green Party, the Liberal Democrats and even the Christian Socialists, have put harsh conditions to participate in coalition government.

The Christian Socialist Party has officially urged the German Chancellor to restrict the admission of asylum seekers in the country. However, the Green Party has warned that if such a thing is realized, they will not participate in negotiations on the formation of a coalition government! The head of the Greens Party, Simon Peter, has virtually warned that if the Socialist Party wants to initiate preliminary talks on the formation of a coalition government, it should forget about the issue of limiting the admission of asylum seekers.
Meanwhile, any election that Merkel will make is the absence of one of the two social-Christian or green parties in forming a coalition government. However, the story does not end there! The Liberal Democrats have also indirectly challenged Merkel's policies in the field of education and economics and called for their revision.
The Liberal Democrat Party's Christian Lindner, in addition to the following, says: "We want a rational energy policy and we reject automatic financial transfers in Europe. We are committed to these goals. If this was not possible with the Alliance of Christian and Green Allies, we would send our proposals to the opposition! "
In other words, the Liberal Democrats have not rejected their coalition with the opposition parties in confronting Merkel's government. This is the worst possible news for Angela Merkel. In order to form the Jamaica coalition, the German Chancellor must give concessions to three Liberal Democrats, Christian Socialists and Green parties. Each of these concessions will mean reducing Merkel's power on the German political and social scene. Merkel will also be condemned by many of his party's supporters for a retreat from the principles of the Christian Democrats.

However, there are differences between members of the Jamaican coalition. In this regard,Global.Handelsblatt  reported that despite this tactical banter, the Jamaica parties do overlap on some policies, and they’ve shown they can work together at the regional level. Since June, a Jamaica coalition led by the Christian Democrats (CDU) has ruled the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein. In another state, wealthy Baden-Württemberg in the south-west, the Greens are the senior partner in a harmonious coalition with the Christian Democrats.

But there’s no denying the differences. Even the chancellor’s conservatives within their own bloc are expected to squabble, especially over refugee policy. Horst Seehofer, the CSU party chairman, warned that his support of the “sister party” could no longer be taken for granted, unless Ms. Merkel agreed to specific limits on immigration and the number of future refugees. “There is an open flank on our right and we have to close this flank with a clear position and clear limits,” he said.
For months, Mr. Seehofer, who is also the premier of Bavaria, has been demanding an explicit commitment to a cap of no more than 200,000 refugees per year – a limit that Ms. Merkel has rejected as unconstitutional. After the CSU’s worst showing since 1949, the Bavarian leader is under pressure. His response will be to harden his stance.

Guardian also reported that The chancellor’s biggest challenge is to sweet-talk two parties into allying with her – the FDP and the Green party – who not only intensely dislike one another but are both cautious of losing credibility with their voters.Talks between the parties, which will also include the CDU’s Bavarian sister party the CSU, could potentially last until after Christmas and risk triggering fresh elections if they collapse.

In such a situation, the Social Democrats are deciding whether or not to be in a coalition government. If Merkel is unable to complete the complex puzzle of the Jamaica coalition, it will have to re-enter the Social-Democratic Party to form a coalition government. In this case, we will again see the formation of a "big coalition" in Germany. Without a doubt, the Social Democrats will not be willing to attend the coalition without gaining the necessary privileges. On the other hand, some senior Social Democrats still oppose the coalition government. An issue that limits Merkel's power to form a coalition government.

However, although after the announcement of the results of the national elections in Germany, most of the country's media reported the possibility of forming a coalition called Jamaica (among the coalition of Christian parties, Liberal Democrats and the Greens), but the coalition seems to have formed Not easy! German Chancellor Angela Merkel has started informal talks with other parties to form a coalition government. However, even Merkel's traditional partners also want concessions in the coalition government.

 In such circumstances, Merkel may again ask the most important party of her rival, Social Democrats, to join Christian Democrats in forming a coalition government. However, Martin Schultz, a failed Social Democrats candidate in the general election this year, has announced that the Social Democratic Party plans to be the main opposition party in parliament and will no longer be present in a coalition government with Christian Democrats. Indeed, will Merkel solve the constitution of a coalition government in Germany? Will the Jamaica Alliance be formed in the end? While such an arrangement would be a first in German history and require the Greens to bridge many differences on policy matters ranging from immigration to the car industry, many see it as a logical result of the party’s ideological transformations.

In any case, Merkel's statements about negotiating with the Social Democratic Party to form a coalition government indicate that the German Chancellor is concerned about the presence of the Green Party in the government coalition. On the other hand, Merkel knows well that if she does not form a coalition government with the Social Democrats, she will have to give concessions to the three constituencies of the Jamaica coalition.

Ultimately, the Social Democrats are very dissatisfied with their heavy defeat in the German general election. In such circumstances, Merkel awaits the withdrawal of the rival party from the shock of the election failure. German Chancellor hopes the Social-Democrat leaders will once again agree on a coalition government with the Christian Democrats. Something that looks hard and difficult. Many SPD members believe that the party can only recuperate its former energy in opposition. If the SPD stayed outside the cabinet it would also stop AfD from assuming the role of leader of the opposition and gaining associated parliamentary privileges.

 If the leaders of the Social Democratic Party choose to opt for a coalition government, then they will face opposition from many of their supporters. This dissatisfaction could lead to a further decline in the popularity of the Social-Democratic Party.

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