Hossein Yari

Republicans concerns over congressional elections

December 22, 2017

As we come closer to the final days of 2017, Republican leaders are becoming increasingly concerned about the events of the coming year in the United States. The most important event of the New Year in the United States are the congressional mid-term elections. If the Democrats can win back the congress, they will be provided with a ground for their victory in the 2010 presidential elections campaigns. The fact is that American citizens are very dissatisfied with the performance of Trump at the top of the political and executive equations of the United States.

A joint survey by Associated Press and the Press-Nork Center show that only less than 25 percent of American citizens are satisfied with Trump’s performance at the White House, and most U.S. citizens are opposed to the presence of Trump in power. The same issue can lead to Republican’s defeat. Although some Republicans, such as Senator McCain (Arizona State Senator) are considered political opponents of Trump, most of the Republican congressmen, especially the senate, are accused of supporting him in the 2016 presidential elections. More importantly, with the recent Republican defeat in the state of Alabama (which led to the Democrats Doug Jones winning the Senate seat), Democrats now have 49 Senate seats. This is while the Republicans still have the feeble majority of 51 seats in the Senate. It can be expected that this ratio will change in the Congressional mid-term elections (when there would be competition over 33% of the seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate).

Another concern of the Republican leaders is about the presidential election in 2020. The results of the polls show that the support of Republican proponents of Trump has dropped dramatically. The PRRI has conducted a new survey, according to which about one-third of the Republicans are willing to nominate a new candidate for the 2020 presidential election. They are no longer willing to obey their party leaders’ orders to vote for Donald Trump. This is while Trump can be nominated by himself in the run-up to the 2010 presidential election without attending in inter-party competitions.

Another point to consider is that the Democrats haven’t taken any effective action in opposition to Donald Trump over the past year. Even many Democrat senators have partnered with him in approving White House-sponsored plans and bills. However, the Democrats main strength lies in the general discontent of Trump. The Democrats are planning to provide the ground for their presence in the U.S. congress and then the victory of the 2010 presidential elections by maneuvering on this public discontent. Thus, the Democratic propaganda and political activities seem to increase further this year (2017). If Republicans lose the majority of seats in the Congress, Trump will be directly confronted with the House of Representatives and the Senate during the years between 2018 and 2020. The result will affect the votes of many American citizens in the next presidential elections.

On the other hand, in recent months, some U.S. sources have reported that Joe Biden, Obama's running mate in the 2008 presidential race, might be nominating for the presidential election of 2020. Biden also expressed some interest in the issue in his remarks. Of course, he hasn’t announced that he will certainly be preset in this political scene. The former vice president of the United States has recently stated:

“I’m uncertain about a run for president in 2020, but I’m looking for fresh blood to lead the Democratic Party back to the White House. if no one steps up, I’d be open to giving it another try. I’m not doing anything to run,” he said. “I’m not taking names, I’m not raising money, I’m not talking to anybody, but something’s got to happen.”

The fact is that the internal equations of the Democrats have been severely disrupted after the 2016 presidential election. Meanwhile, Democrats' increasing popularity over the past year has been due to Donald Trump's administration bewilderment. If the Democrats can win the congressional elections in the coming year (2018) and win the majority of the Senate, then their victory in the 2010 presidential election may also be possible.

Undoubtedly, in case of a continued decline in the popularity of Trump in polls, Democrats' inner-party competitions will be heightened in the 2010 presidential election. Some news sources have claimed that Hillary Clinton, the failed Democrat candidate in the 2016 presidential election, plans to try her luck to enter the White House once again. In this case, Biden and Hillary Clinton rivalry can be appealing in the inner-party competition. It should not be forgotten that Hillary Clinton's emails and security allegations (which played a significant role in defeating the former US Secretary of State in the last year's elections) remain open. In the course of the 2016 presidential election, many of Obama supporters urged Biden to participate in Democratic party elections, but Biden's unsuitable mental status as a result of his child's death, prevented the to happen.

Last month, the U.S. Congressional website (Hill) released poll results for the 2010 presidential election. According to the poll, in the 2010 presidential race, the former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden is ahead with eleven points compared to Donald Trump, the current president of the country. Interestingly, even among white Americans, Biden's popularity is higher than Trump. If the current trend continues at the White House, Joe Biden will have a great incentive to attend the presidential elections of 2020. On the other hand, among Democrat supporters, Biden has a better position than Hillary Clinton. Clinton has become a symbol of Democrats' failure in the presidential elections last year, and her political revival in the minds of American voters seems to be tough and difficult.

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