By Saeed Sobhani 

Challenge over popularity of Trump 

January 1, 2018

TEHRAN - After one year of Donald Trump's presidency, we see an increase in public discontent over his performance at the White House. Various polls conducted in the United States, especially in recent months, show that Trump has little popularity with American voters. On the other hand, Republican defeat in the state of Alabama, after 25 years, indicates a decrease in the popularity of Trump and the Republican Party.

 Many American analysts say that if Republicans fail in this year's mid-term elections for the Democratic congressional elections, they will also be defeated by the presidential elections of 2020. In that case, we will no longer see Trump's presence again at the White House. In such a situation, the president of the United States, by falsely reading the polls, is trying to continue to be successful as a president!

Newsweek reported that as the clock counts down the final hours of 2017, a fundraising committee for President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence is ending the year by releasing an “Inaugural Year Approval” survey that doesn’t permit respondents to rate Trump’s first year in the White House badly. The poll, which can be seen on, is labeled “Official Presidential Job Performance Poll.”

It has already drawn some smirks, snarks and accusations of bias from Twitter users, because of its first question: “How would you rate President Trump’s first year in office (2017)?” The only answers offered are: “Great,” “Good,” “Okay” or “Other.”

For the second question, “How would you rate President Obama’s first year in office (2009)?” there is one more option: “Poor.”

Other tweeters ridiculed the survey and rejoiced in the opportunity to give unfiltered feedback to Trump in the blank text box marked “Other.” There’s another element of the poll that has some cranky and suspicious: respondents must submit identifying information, including their names and email addresses, raising concerns that the details will be raided for marketing purposes.

The site’s fine print below the form notes that, “by providing your phone number, you are consenting to receive calls and texts, including autodialed and automated calls and texts, to that number from TMAGAC and its participating committees.”

@jenniezcarr tweeted: “Got this Inaugural Year Opinion Poll in an email from Trump Headquarters BONUS: Can't submit a response unless you enroll in ongoing texts from Trump FUTURE HEADLINE: Trump's first year receives 98% approval rating.”

The survey can be found on the Trump/Pence website, and is being sent out via email.

The homepage links to a shorter version of the survey, “Presidential Approval Poll; where do you stand on President's Trump's job performance.” It omits the question about Obama's first year in office, but also omits any negative options as a survey response for Trump. The survey’s footnote states that the poll is “paid for by the Trump Make America Great Again Committee, a joint fundraising committee authorized by and composed of Donald J Trump for President, Inc. and the Republican National Committee.”

A similar poll was released months ago, asking respondents to rate Trump’s “First 50 days.” That survey included the ability to “disapprove” of the president’s performance in the White House. This time, it’s impossible to “disapprove.” And who can argue with that?

Also CNN reported that the truth, across almost every reputable poll, is that Trump's approval ratings have lagged behind those of nearly all of his predecessors, including Obama, since day one of his presidency.

The cleanest comparison between the approval ratings of the two presidents is Gallup's daily tracking polls, which are released as both three-day rolling averages and weekly averages. The three-day averages released on December 28, 2009 -- the day Trump cited in his tweet -- showed 51% approval for Obama with 43% disapproval. On December 28 of this year, Gallup released a three-day average showing 38% approval for Trump with 56% disapproval.

The weekly numbers tell a similar story: For the week ending December 27, 2009, 51% approved of Obama, and for the week ending December 24, 2017, 37% approved of Trump.

That gap is mirrored in other polls with long-term trends and similar methodologies now as they had in 2009. In CNN's polling among all adults, 35% approved of Trump in mid-December 2017, while Obama held a 54% approval rating in December 2009. CBS News finds a 14-point gap between Obama's approval then (50%) and Trump's approval now (36%). NBC News and The Wall Street Journal show a smaller 6-point gap on approval, but Trump's disapproval number (56%) tops Obama's by 10 points (46%). And the Quinnipiac University poll finds a 9-point gap between Trump's approval (37%) and Obama's positive rating (46%) among registered voters.

Trump's tweeted claim rests on the findings of a daily tracking poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports. Those findings come from a poll conducted using a mix of online interviews and those conducted via calls to landline telephones by a recorded voice interviewer rather than a live person. They claim to interview likely voters, without specifying in what election those people are likely to cast ballots, nor how they are identified. Polls conducted this way do not meet CNN's standards for reporting, because they can under-represent certain segments of the population.

Rasmussen's polling received a C+ rating in Five Thirty Eight's most recent pollster rankings, and it has been found to lean toward the GOP when compared with other pollsters, which means it typically understated support for Obama and has a tendency to overstate support for Trump when compared with other polls.

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