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| Iran’s aging population on the rise as experts warn |
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 Raised in a middle-class family, 25 years ago, one of the main preconditions I put forward with my wife for marriage was having only one child and after a hot discussion she accepted. Today, however, to some extent I regret the decision of having only one child.
During the last few years, Iranian mass media outlets have extensively focused on the high decline of Iran’s population growth. As experts express pessimism, it appears that the aging population would eventually create numerous problems in the coming years and its importance is more than any socio-economic achievements.
The population growth decline in the last decade has gradually emerged in Iranian society and it seems like this trend will continue in the next few decades as the majority of young couples have come to the conclusion that with the current economic situation even the wealthy families cannot afford to have more than two children.
One-child policy may be ideal for countries like China or India, but such a policy has consequences for a developing country like Iran. Every now and then the population experts warn that the huge aging population could cripple the very fabric of cultural, social and economic plans and they try to enlighten the spouses with such threats.
According to Iran’s 1996 census, the country’s population was 60 million, about 6-7 million less than estimates predicted by the United Nations and other international organizations. These findings surprised Iranian demographers.
Habibollah Zanjani, a prominent demographer, sees aging as “the most important population matter” facing the country in the future.
“Not only the number of elderly but also its impact on the population including an aging of the workforce and support of elderly, will influence other aspects of the society,” Mr. Zanjani says, adding that the country is ill-prepared for such changes.
However, if Iran’s 1986 and 1996 censuses are comparable and children were not undercounted, these results indicate a remarkable decline in fertility as the proportion of Iran’s population under the age of 5 years fell from 18 percent in 1986 to 10 percent in 1996.
Today the population growth rate stands at 1.2 percent, with the fertility rate, representing the average number of children born per woman, standing at 1.6. That number is well below the 2.1 that is considered the minimum rate needed in the industrialized world for a population to avoid decline. This, in turn, has led to a new wake-up call.
According to the UN World Population Prospects in 2010 report, should birth rates continue their present pattern, Iran’s total population will begin falling in two decades, and it will shrink by more than half to 31 million around 2100.
These figures show the rate of fertility has surpassed its natural norm and experts warn if measures are not adopted within the next three years, the aged population grips the country.
The same statements announced by Iran’s Ministry of Health recently. Meanwhile, other related bodies, including Majlis, IRIB and High Council of Cultural Revolution, have held meetings to take measures, but these efforts have so far produced no result.
The government's strategy is based on stopping birth control programs and increasing financial incentives for young couples to get married and have children.
Population experts predict the measures adopted by the government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were not likely to work with the wider population; however, citing the failure of initiatives like the promise of payment in 2010 for each newborn of 10 million rials, at the time worth about $1,000.
But for the most of the newly-married couples, 10 million rials is nothing for a family to reconsider their childbearing plans. Even this amount of money was stopped after a short time.
The majority of new couples are currently grappling with poverty to earn their bread and butter. They have to work two or three shifts in some cases to lead their livelihood but they are still lagging behind. So if such is the case, is it rational to encourage them to have more children?
The other point is that the age of marriage among the youth has increased dramatically in recent years. One of the outstanding problems behind late marriage is economic troubles; the young spouses have to deal with unemployment, poverty, high rise of housing units and skyrocketing prices and that is why they are reluctant to commit to marriage and establish a family.
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