Post-election gridlock likely to drag on in Ukraine: analysts

April 10, 2006 - 0:0
KIEV (AFP) -- Two weeks after parliamentary elections, Ukraine is stuck in a political gridlock that could drag on for weeks as poll winners try to cobble together a coalition to form a new government, analysts say. "By all signs, coalition battles promise to be drawn out," wrote the Dzerkalo Tyzhny weekly. "No one is showing signs of being willing to compromise."

A breakthrough appeared likely last week, when President Viktor Yushchenko's Our Ukraine bloc announced that it had decided to reunite with its estranged "orange revolution" allies, the Socialists and Yulia Tymoshenko's bloc.

But within hours the Ukrainian president warned that the announcement was only "the beginning of negotiations" and Tymoshenko accused his party of deliberately stalling the talks.

The key stumbling block in reuniting the bickering "orange" partners is Tymoshenko's demand that she return to head the government.

The fiery politician helped Yushchenko lead the "orange revolution" protests in late 2004 that catapulted him to power, but acrimoniously broke with the president after he fired her as premier seven months ago.

The Ukrainian leader has been under pressure to reunite with Tymoshenko ever since a March 26 parliamentary ballot was won by the pro-Russian Regions Party, led by another ex-premier Viktor Yanukovych who was kept from power in the 2004 revolt.

But Yushchenko has hesitated to do so, as he is widely believed to distrust his one-time ally and is wary of her again taking up the prime minister's post, which will have expanded powers under constitutional changes that came into force this year.

"He is certain that a Tymoshenko premiership will create more problems than it will solve, but he hasn't yet found a clear way to resist this," said Mykhailo Pogrebinsky, a political analyst in Kiev.

The March 26 ballot has left President Yushchenko as the kingmaker with a no-win choice over whom to choose as partner in forming the new cabinet.

Aside from Tymoshenko, his other choice of coalition partner is Viktor Yanukovych, the Russia-backed ex-premier defeated in the 2004 revolt who opposes many of the pro-Western reforms that Yushchenko holds dear.

The parties led by Yanukovych, Tymoshenko and Yushchenko came in the top three after the election with an expected 186, 129 and 81 seats in the 450-member Upper Rada legislature, respectively.

The Socialists are expected to get 33 seats and the Communists 21.

As Tymoshenko has ruled out teaming up the pro-Russian Yanukovych, it is up to the Ukrainian president to choose an ally with whom to form a coalition and the new government.

Teaming up with Tymoshenko risks scaring away investors who are wary of her interventionist tendencies and strident stand on nationalization. Analysts say the ambitious politician is also likely to reduce the president's influence if she assumes the powerful new premiership.

Joining up with Yanukovych risks slowing pro-Western reforms and losing support among the "orange" electorate three years before the next presidential ballot.