Poll shows Chavez with strong lead

November 25, 2006 - 0:0
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- A strong majority of Venezuelans plan to cast their ballots for President Hugo Chavez on Dec. 3, according to an AP-Ipsos poll that revealed deep divisions along class lines.

About 59 percent of likely voters said they would vote for Chavez for a third term, while 27 percent said they would support opposition candidate Manuel Rosales. Thirteen percent of those surveyed by the polling firm Ipsos for The Associated Press said they were undecided or wouldn't answer.

At home, the poll showed, Venezuelans are generally content with the country's direction, with 61 percent of all respondents saying Venezuela is moving in the right direction and 31 percent saying it's on the wrong track.

The survey found sharp differences in voting preference depending on income. The wealthiest likely voters solidly supported Rosales, while the middle class appeared split and the poorest overwhelmingly backed Chavez over Rosales — 70 percent to 16 percent.

The survey was carried out Nov. 10-18 among 2,500 registered voters interviewed face-to-face at their homes, including 1,500 determined by the pollsters to be likely voters based on their answers and historical turnout levels. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points for results among registered voters, and 3 points for likely voters.

Despite Chavez's recent speech to the United Nations in which he called Bush "the devil," 59 percent said they approve of Chavez's handling of international relations.

A majority, 63 percent, said they have a negative view of Bush, while 55 percent expressed an unfavorable view of the United States in general. Fewer — 44 percent — had an unfavorable view of American people, compared with 48 percent who had a positive view of Americans.

A huge majority, 79 percent, said they consider the political system in Venezuela at least somewhat democratic. And 46 percent said there seems to be less freedom in Venezuela today than in the past.

Despite Chavez's high numbers, there are divisions in his own political camp, said Steve Ellner, a political science professor at Venezuela's University of the East.

A considerable number, 47 percent, said Chavez should cut back on his televised speeches, which he makes nearly every day, often going on for hours. Forty-four percent said they believe he makes the right amount of speeches.

Chavez got his highest marks overall for his handling of education, with 75 percent approval, and health, 74 percent, and his lowest marks for his handling of corruption and crime — 45 percent and 34 percent, respectively.

Crime stood out as Venezuelans' top concern: 67 percent called it one of the most important problem facing the country, with unemployment in second place. Venezuela's jobless rate officially stands at just under 9 percent, but 23 percent of those polled described themselves as unemployed.

Venezuelans disagreed over their country's future, with 37 percent favoring a socialist economic system, 22 percent favoring capitalism and 33 percent preferring a mix of the two.

The poll found a parallel between support for Chavez and seeing benefits from his oil-funded social programs, which range from free health care by Cuban doctors to heavily subsidized government grocery stores.

Sixty-eight percent of likely voters said they'd vote for Chavez.