Europeans give ECB bad marks on inflation

December 31, 2008 - 0:0

FRANKFURT (Financial Times) -- The euro may have established global credibility in the eyes of those that use it daily but continental Europeans are not yet ready to give the European Central Bank high marks for its control of inflation. They are also pessimistic about the economic outlook.

The latest FT/Harris survey of European opinion, before the euro’s 10th birthday on January 1, revealed a widespread belief that the euro could overtake the dollar in global importance within five years, suggesting voters were confident in its credibility and stability.
Although that will cheer Europe’s monetary guardians, the ECB still fares badly in the poll for its efforts to control inflation over the past decade. More than half of the Italians and Spanish polled, 47 percent of the Germans and 44 percent of the French said the ECB’s inflation-fighting performance was “bad” or “terrible”.
The results might appear surprising because, with the exception of a spike this year caused by soaring oil prices, eurozone inflation has rarely risen substantially higher than the ECB’s stated target of an annual rate “below but close” to 2 percent. One explanation is that Europeans fear the euro has caused prices to rise - a claim believed to be at least partly true by about 90 percent of those polled in France, Italy and Spain and 83 percent in Germany.
Across the eurozone, and beyond, those polled were universally gloomy about the economic outlook. A quarter or less of those polled in all countries believed that the recession would last a year or less. A quarter of the British expected it to last at least two years. Germans were the most pessimistic, with three out of 10 believing that their country would not return to growth “in the foreseeable future”.
Support for the expansion of the eurozone was strongest in Italy, where 57 percent of those polled agreed strongly or “somewhat” with more countries joining. The Germans were noticeably more skeptical, however, with 49 percent opposing the idea, compared with 41 percent in favor.
The eurozone will expand to 16 members on January 1, when Slovakia joins. With the financial market crisis increasing the attractiveness of being part of a large monetary union, countries such as Denmark, Poland and Hungary could move towards memberships.
However, just 22 percent of those polled in the UK liked the idea of the euro replacing sterling. A decade ago, Germans were sceptical about giving up the D-mark, symbol of the country’s postwar economic miracle. However, the poll found majorities in all four of the eurozone’s biggest economies - France, Italy, Spain and Germany - were opposed, in light of the current economic situation, to returning to national currencies. Opposition was strongest in France.
Asked whether their countries would stop using the euro within the next 10 years, 75 percent of the French and 72 percent of the Germans disagreed. For Spain and Italy, the figures were 69 and 61 percent.
The poll was conducted among 6,165 adults in France, Germany, Italy, the UK, and U.S. between November 26 and December 8.