U.S. efforts to cut off Iran's oil exports put Japan in tight spot

December 21, 2011 - 16:59
The latest U.S. sanctions on Iran's oil exports have put Tokyo in a difficult position, with Japanese diplomats and companies scrambling to secure sufficient energy resources while avoiding penalties for continuing to do business with Tehran.

Under the U.S. legislation, which was recently passed by Congress and is awaiting President Barack Obama's signature, Washington will penalize any financial institution found to be conducting business with Iran's central bank, Tehran's conduit for its oil exports.

Iranian crude oil accounted for approximately 10 percent of Japan's total oil imports in fiscal 2010.

On Friday, Foreign Minister Koichiro Genba was quick to hint that Japan will seek to be exempt from the latest U.S. sanctions.

"The Foreign Ministry has expressed concerns over the impact (the sanctions will have) on our country and the global economy," Genba told reporters.
Genba said that "Japan fears (halting imports of Iranian oil) will hurt the entire global economy."

Choking off Iran could send oil prices soaring, and Japan, which has become increasingly dependent on fossil fuels because of the Fukushima nuclear crisis, would be hit especially hard. In the face of mounting public concern over the safety of atomic energy, the government has been unwilling to restart reactors idled for regular inspections. As of Dec. 1, only nine of the nation's 54 reactors were in operation. All could potentially be offline by spring.

"Obviously, we must also address the impact it will have on oil prices and the economy," Genba said.

Japanese Bankers Association Chairman Katsunori Nagayasu also expressed concern over the impact of ending oil imports from Iran or penalizing bank institutions for doing business with Tehran.

"Bringing everything to a halt will inevitably have a negative impact on Japan's economy," Nagayasu said. "We hope the government will negotiate an exemption that would allow (financial institutions) to continue transactions with Iran."

So far, Washington has appeared willing to respond to Tokyo's request with a degree of flexibility.

Given Washington's determination to tighten the screws on Iran, however, it seems unlikely it will grant Tokyo a complete exemption, forcing the government to secure alternative — and potentially more expensive — crude oil from other countries.

According to the International Energy Agency, Iran possesses the third-largest oil reserves in the world and produces approximately 4 million barrels a day. Japan, China and European nations are the biggest importers of Tehran's crude oil, but the new U.S. restrictions would also influence countries such as India and South Korea.

-- Oil: $200
Some analysts say that once Obama signs the bill, there will be a rush to secure supplies from other oil-producing countries, creating instability and price volatility in the oil sector.

Experts have even forecast that the U.S. sanctions could push up the price of crude oil to around $200 per barrel.

"If exports from Iran come to a halt, it is a pretty big deal since the country produces approximately 12 percent" of crude oil among member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Jun Inoue, a senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute, told The Japan Times.

That could lead to a worst-case scenario in which oil prices surge and send the global economy, already under a cloud due to Europe's debt crisis and the lack of growth in the U.S., into a full-blown tailspin, Inoue said.

(Source: japantimes)