Pressure on Iran will up oil prices to $210: analyst
January 11, 2012 - 16:52
The tensions over Iran and threats from the West to apply sanctions on Iranian oil will see crude prices facing more of an upside risk in the near future, a commodities analyst told CNBC.
"Most of it has been priced in [oil prices] because the embargo news came out a week ago.
Markets are jittery. We know if the EU imposes the embargo then Iran will probably send most of its crude to China," Amrita Sen, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital, said.
Sen added that a crucial impact on oil prices would be if other countries outside of the U.S. and Europe joined in with an embargo of Iranian oil.
The threat to the supply of Iranian crude has risen dramatically in recent weeks, with a war of words erupting from U.S. and a threat by the European Union that it will also be seeking to ban imports of Iranian oil.
Reports suggest the EU may be seeking to bring forward a meeting which will determine when an embargo on Iranian crude will be enforced as an agreement in principle to ban imports of oil already exists.
"If the Strait of Hormuz is affected in any way we are looking at significantly higher oil prices; I wouldn't even dare to put a price on it, but around $200 dollars a barrel," Sen added.
However, Julian Jessop, chief global economist at Capital Economics, told CNBC.com that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be the worst-case scenario.
It is not in the West's interest to close the Strait.
If this does happen we would put the price of crude at $210 a barrel," Jessop said.
He added that a far bigger threat to rising oil prices was the macroeconomic situation; in particular the euro zone debt crisis which he felt would result in a break-up of the single currency union with one or more countries leaving.
(Source: CNBC.com)