MADRID – John J. Mearsheimer is, without question, the most influential voice in contemporary realist theory in international relations. A professor at the University of Chicago and architect of the so-called “offensive realism” theory, he argues that the international system – lacking any effective supranational authority—pushes states into an inevitable and brutal competition for power.

In his view, international politics is not—and cannot be—a realm governed by ideals or abstract norms, but a chessboard where strategic interests, security, and survival determine the actions of state actors.

This perspective – alongside his harsh self-critique of U.S. foreign policy – has made him a controversial figure, especially due to his sharp questioning of Israel’s role in the region and Washington’s complicity in the Palestinian tragedy. Mearsheimer’s recent interview with Tucker Carlson – along with recent public debates, lectures, and essays—reopens the still-bleeding wound of West Asia and forces an uncomfortable reckoning with the real causes and consequences of regional geopolitics.

Israel: Expansionist strategy, power Logic, and structural failure

For Mearsheimer, Israel’s strategy follows a ruthless logic: maximize power at any cost and neutralize any threat to Tel Aviv’s regional dominance. According to his diagnosis, the Zionist project rests on four pillars: territorial expansion, the systematic expulsion of Palestinians, the active destabilization of neighboring states, and the securing of unlimited military, political, and diplomatic backing from the United States.

From its inception, Israeli leaders – Mearsheimer explains – have pursued a policy that fuses overwhelming military force with an uncompromising demand for loyalty from Washington. Military campaigns in Gaza, and interventions in Lebanon and Syria, align with the broader goal of consolidating Israeli power by dismantling all forms of organized resistance.

The recent assault on Gaza – bluntly described by Mearsheimer as “genocide” – follows the long-standing premise that only mass violence, or the threat of extermination, can achieve the definitive expulsion of the Palestinian population that continues to resist. According to the realist, Israel has never sought to kill all Palestinians, but rather to make life so unbearable that they are forced into exile – a gradual policy of “ethnic cleansing” justified through the rhetoric of national security.

This plan, he emphasizes, is always executed under American “protection,” which blocks international condemnation and guarantees Israel’s impunity despite flagrant violations of international law. Washington has thus, in Mearsheimer’s words, abandoned its own national interests in favor of an “Israel First” foreign policy, driven by the powerful pro-Israel lobby.

Regional destabilization as doctrine: Syria, Iran, and the Kurdish mirage

Mearsheimer’s analysis goes beyond the Israel–Palestine binary and delves into the regional scope of Israeli strategy. A key component of this strategy, he argues, has been the systematic erosion of the integrity of neighboring states, especially Syria and Iran. Mearsheimer clearly states that Israel has rarely settled for mere “regime change” in Tehran or Damascus. Its underlying goal – long disguised by arguments of self-defense – has been to promote the Balkanization of its rivals: to fragment Iran and Syria into competing entities incapable of challenging Israeli primacy.

Syria served as a laboratory for this approach: open and covert interventions sowing chaos and turning the country into a patchwork of warring enclaves. In the Iranian case, Tel Aviv’s obsession centers on exploiting ethnic fault lines and supporting separatist movements – such as the “Kurdish project” – to weaken key regional actors and subject them, directly or indirectly, to U.S. influence.

These plans are cloaked in the language of self-defense and counterterrorism, but for Mearsheimer, they embody a broader project of geopolitical reengineering driven by hegemonic ambition rather than genuine survival needs. The paradox is clear: in its pursuit of absolute security, Israel systematically sows the seeds of its own insecurity by perpetuating unresolved conflicts in its immediate environment.

Iran: Rational actor, strategic resistance, and the nuclear dilemma

While Western media typically portray Iran as a source of instability and obscurantism, Mearsheimer’s realist lens encourages a different reading. Iran, he argues, is neither irrational nor suicidal, but rather a state that responds to existential pressure with policies of deterrence and resistance.

Far from seeking Israel’s total destruction, the Iranian government prioritizes survival, national sovereignty, and the maintenance of a legitimate sphere of influence amid growing hostility. Tehran’s military responses – targeted, calculated, and focused on military objectives – demonstrate, in the political scientist’s view, a strategic sophistication that defies the usual clichés. In practice, it is Iran that acts as the essential counterbalance to Israeli excesses and prevents the region from falling under a forced pax Israeliana.

Israel’s obsession with preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear capabilities – at any cost – is, according to Mearsheimer, a reflection of its refusal to accept any regional balance of power. U.S. involvement in the containment and sanction strategy has only further entrenched positions. Today, the prospect of a “grand bargain” is more distant than ever, the result of a policy that rejects both pragmatism and the bare minimum of coexistence.

The U.S. role: Complicity, impotence, and moral collapse

Mearsheimer draws an unflinching portrait of U.S. policy in West Asia. His indictment is blunt: Washington, seduced by a misguided Atlanticism and pressured by the pro-Israel lobby, has relinquished its supposed role as an impartial power and instead become a willing accomplice in the region’s unfolding tragedy.

The U.S. serves as the military, financial, and political guarantor of Israel’s agenda, but at an enormous cost: the erosion of moral authority, discredit in the eyes of Muslim societies, and constant exposure of its soldiers, diplomats, and interests to a conflict it has itself inflamed. With every assault on Gaza or Lebanon, with every act of sabotage against Iran, anti-American hostility deepens, and Washington’s capacity for dialogue shrinks.

Domestically, this alignment has produced a stifling consensus where dissent is branded as betrayal and foreign policy is subordinated to external agendas rather than shaped by national interest. The instrumentalization of U.S. policy by specific interest groups – especially the pro-Israel lobby – has effectively mortgaged American initiative and undermined its global standing at a time when strategic rivals like China and Russia are rising.

Consequences and prospects: Strategic collapse and Israel’s dead end

The diagnosis allows no room for illusions. According to Mearsheimer, Israel now faces a dead end. Every vector of its strategy shows deep and perhaps irreparable cracks: military and moral exhaustion in Gaza; an inability to defeat Hamas or contain Hezbollah; the risk of a prolonged war with Iran, whose consequences could be disastrous even for a regime as militarized as Israel; and internal fractures pushing Israeli society to the brink of “civil war.”

Israel’s structural dependence on the United States – for resources, legitimacy, and diplomatic cover – highlights the regime’s real vulnerability, no matter how much its image continues to be associated with strength and resilience. Without U.S. support, Mearsheimer warns, Israel would struggle to sustain its project in the medium term.

The double standard practiced by the West – especially by Europe and the United States – in its unconditional support for Israel has destroyed bridges with potential partners and weakened all prospects for a balanced, lasting dialogue. The cost is incalculable, both in human lives and in geopolitical legitimacy.

The imperative of self-criticism and the need for a new approach

Mearsheimer’s analysis calls for a radical reassessment of long-held assumptions. The Israeli regime has drifted into an expansionist, militaristic, and profoundly destructive path, with consequences that now threaten global stability. The United States shares responsibility for this trajectory – both through action and inaction – and its continued denial of the real conflict only pushes the region closer to an irreversible abyss.

To halt the escalation, it is urgent to recognize the political roots of the crisis and open the way for negotiations in which both Iran and the Palestinians are treated as legitimate actors. Official statements and diplomatic silence are no longer enough. Only international pressure, journalistic honesty, and political courage can avert catastrophe and offer a way out before West Asia – and with it, the wider world – pays the ultimate price for collective self-deception.