TEHRAN – As Iran has entered El Niño phase, particularly in spring and summer, precipitation is forecast to be low in southeast of the country in summer, but normal in fall, Ahad Vazifeh, the head of the Meteorological Organization, has said.

Currently, El Niño, and La Niña phases are in neutral conditions, that is the difference between the temperature of the water in the surface of Pacific Ocean and 200 meters below the surface of the ocean, in central and eastern parts, is less than 0.5 degrees cooler compared to normal situation which indicates neutral condition, he added. 

However, based on simulated models, the temperature of water at the surface of the ocean is predicted to get more than 0.5 degrees warmer, and enter El Niño Southern Oscillation phase, ISNA quoted Vazifeh as saying.

The situation is not expected to affect summer much as summers are mostly dry in the country; rainfalls in southern half of Sistan-Baluchestan, east of Hormozgan, and south of Kerman will be less than normal.

Precipitation in fall will be influenced by El Niño and are projected to be normal, unlike last year in which rainfall dropped significantly.

Referring to the provinces that have received less-than-normal rainfall, the official said precipitation in Alborz province and Tehran province has been less than normal.

The average rainfall in Alborz province from September 2024 till April 2025 amounted to 219 mm; this year, during the same period, the province received 234 mm of rain on average, while the long-term rainfall is about 263 mm. 

Since the beginning of the new water year, started in September 2025, till April 6, the average rainfall in Qom, Markazi, Gilan, and Mazandaran provinces have been 27 percent, 30 percent, 24 percent, and 20 percent less than normal, the official added.

Earlier, Vazifeh predicted that in April the temperature will be up to one degree higher than normal in northern part of the country. In some parts in Hormozgan province, the temperature is forecast to be three to six degrees less than normal. It will be one to three degrees less than normal in southern parts, and east of the country. In other parts, the temperature will be normal.

In the second week of April, rainfall in the coasts of the Caspian Sea, northern half of north-west and middle Zagros, parts of northern and southern Zagros and other parts will be normal, and/or above normal. 
From April 13 to 19, precipitations will be normal and in the next two weeks (April 20 to May 3), it is forecast to be normal and/or less than normal.

From April 6 to 19, the temperature in the Persian Gulf is projected to be three to six degrees less than normal. It will be one to three degrees less than normal in southern parts, east, southwest, and west of the country. It will be normal in other parts. 

From April 20 to 26, the temperature will be one to six degrees less than normal in southern half of the country, northern and middle Zagros. In Khuzestan, Bushehr, and southwest of Fars provinces, the temperature will drop by three to six degrees. 

The temperature will be normal in most parts of the country from April 27 to May 3. It will be one to three degrees less than normal in Khuzestan, Bushehr, south of Fars and Kerman, Hormozgan, and Sistan-Baluchestan provinces, as well as eastern parts of the country.