TEHRAN – Nearly a year after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire, and just weeks after a truce with Hamas in Gaza, the situation on the ground shows that neither agreement has brought lasting calm.

Across Lebanon and Gaza, civilians continue to face the threat of airstrikes, assassinations, and displacement. Many observers believe Israel, backed decisively by the United States, has used these ceasefires as political tools to manage international scrutiny while continuing military operations largely unhindered.

On Sunday afternoon, an Israeli airstrike targeted a residential apartment in Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahiyeh, killing several people, including senior Hezbollah military commander Haytham Ali Tabtabai.

Lebanese authorities condemned the attack as a serious breach of the November 2024 ceasefire. Israel has also continued targeted operations, airstrikes, and military patrols in Gaza despite the October 10, 2025, ceasefire. Analysts argue that these ceasefires serve primarily as diplomatic cover, allowing Israel to project an image of restraint while maintaining operational freedom.

Strategic perspectives

Mohammad Bayat, an expert in international relations, told the Tehran Times that preemptive military strikes could prevent Israel from attacking Lebanon. He argues that such action should be guided by the strategy of “unity of the battlefields.”

Bayat believes that attacks on Israel’s vital centers, together with disruptions to regional energy security resulting from the conflict, could push the White House to conclude that prolonging the crisis before the U.S. midterm elections would damage the Republican Party and the political future of Vice President J.D. Vance.

U.S. strategic backing

Despite President Donald Trump’s pledges to end “endless wars,” the United States has provided Israel with advanced weapons, intelligence-sharing, and political protection at the United Nations.

This backing has enabled Israel to operate simultaneously in Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria, insulating its military actions from meaningful accountability. Critics contend that this U.S.-Israeli alignment has institutionalized impunity and escalated the humanitarian crisis across the region.

The human cost in Lebanon

Lebanon has endured catastrophic consequences since the conflict reignited on October 8, 2023—one day after Israel launched its war on Gaza. Israeli attacks have killed approximately 4,000 people and displaced over 1.2 million.

Southern Lebanon has seen extensive destruction of homes, farmland, and critical infrastructure. Even after the November 27, 2024, ceasefire, attacks continued. A recent Israeli strike on a Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon killed more than a dozen civilians. Lebanese authorities estimate that up to 300 people have died due to ceasefire violations by Israel, with around 400 breaches recorded.

Threats of Gaza-style destruction

Israeli officials have repeatedly warned of Gaza-style destruction in Lebanon. For Lebanese citizens, this is a chilling threat: Gaza has endured one of the deadliest and most destructive military campaigns in recent history, with entire neighborhoods leveled and tens of thousands killed.

Such rhetoric demonstrates Israel’s willingness to use overwhelming force and underscores that ceasefires have not constrained its operational ambitions.

Targeted killings

The assassination of Tabtabai is a continuation of Israel’s campaign to eliminate senior Hezbollah figures, including Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, his deputy, and commanders such as Foad Shukr.

While these assassinations may have disrupted Hezbollah’s command structure, they have failed to eliminate the movement or undermine its popularity. Analysts note that such strikes reinforce perceptions that Israel’s strategy aims to destabilize Lebanon rather than negotiate peace.

Expanding operations in Syria

Israel’s tactics in Lebanon are mirrored by its widening military footprint in Syria. Since the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government last December, Israeli airstrikes and ground incursions have sought to secure strategic corridors and weaken resistance forces.

The United States has largely remained silent despite close ties to new political figures in Syria, signaling tacit approval. This alignment strengthens the perception that American policy prioritizes Israeli strategic objectives over regional stability and civilian protection.

Risk of regional escalation

West Asia now stands on a precarious edge. Israeli operations across Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria—combined with U.S. backing and threats of Gaza-style destruction—risk igniting a broader confrontation. Analysts warn that ongoing escalation and repeated ceasefire violations could trigger a conflict with consequences extending well beyond the immediate theaters of war, destabilizing the entire region and affecting Israel and the United States themselves.

Israel’s assassination of Tabtabai may have removed a key Hezbollah commander, but history and the group’s organizational depth suggest the move could strengthen rather than weaken the movement. Such strikes often galvanize internal cohesion, reinforce political legitimacy, and accelerate adaptive strategies that make Hezbollah harder to confront.

Far from crippling the group, these operations tend to sharpen its resolve, showing that decapitation tactics can backfire when faced with deeply rooted networks and popular support.