By Hanif Ghaffari

Will Trump stay in White House?

January 16, 2018 - 10:30

TEHRAN - Over the past months, there have been whispers in the U.S. political environments and the country's media regarding Republicans bypassing Trump. The rejection of some Republican prominent senators, including McCain, with Trump, as well as the opposition of some of the United States former presidents, including George W. Bush, has aggravated this trend.

However, few thought that at the end of 2017, while only about a year has passed since the presence of Trump at the White House, the confrontation between the dissatisfied Republicans and the U.S. President would become public.

The fact is that Republicans in the United States are now worried about the country's 2020 presidential elections. Surveys in this country have shown that Trump's popularity has fallen by about 35%. Even in some surveys, Trump's popularity has dropped to 30% and below. Although the president of the United States claims that the polls are all fake, it is obvious that the popularity of Trump with American citizens has fallen since the time of the presidential elections in 2016.

 The Republican defeat in the recent state elections in Alabama indicates the same thing. On the other hand, Democrats have already started their efforts to conquer the White House and return to power.People like Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are listed as possible candidates for the Democratic Party in the 2020 presidential elections. Surveys show that if any of these two Democratic politicians stand against Trump, they can easily defeat him in the competitions. In such a situation, we are witnessing increasing objections to the President's approach and, of course, an aggravated concern by Republican senators over the political situation of their party.

Dissatisfied Republicans are worried that their name is now tied up to Trump, and this will have heavy costs for the party. They are worried that the failure of the Congress elections this year, and the failure of the presidential elections of 2020, will only be a short-term expense! In other words, they are worried because of their support for Trump, they would lose the chance to return to the White House for many years.

On the other hand, in recent days, new theories have been raised about the 2020 presidential elections. "Opera Winfrey," the Americanmedia proprietor, is one of the candidates who have been recently suggested as Trump's rival in the upcoming presidential elections. The White House said it welcomed Winfrey's possible presence in the country's presidential campaigns in 2020, and her challenging Donald Trump in that election. White House authorities have argued that they basically don't care who would stand against Trump during the nextPresidential Elections! However, the evidences indicate a continuous fear among the Republicans regarding this matter.

The Republican defeat in the state of Alabama (after 25 years) has shown that the status of this traditional party has been challenged, even in those states where their votes have traditionally been in favor of the Republicans. On the other hand, the Congress electionsis going to be held this year.If the Democrats can win back two Senate seats of the Republicans in this election, they will have the majority of Senate at their hands. In the House of Representatives, Democrats don't really have a hard time going to win Republicans. Some analysts of the U.S. affairs mention that the Democrats will have an easy competition in the U.S. mid-term elections to win the Republicans. In other words, due to the presence of Trump at the top of the political and administrative equations of the United States, they will win without any troubles ahead.In this case, the situation will be terribly shaky for Trump and his administration at the White House.

On the other hand, the Republican's defeat in United States mid-term elections, and winning the majority of the Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives by Democratsis a prelude to the Republican's failure in the 2020 presidential election. In this situation, Trump is scared of standing before people like "Joe Biden" or "Bernie Sanders". Polls conducted in the United States show that if Biden is selected as the Democratic nominee for the 2020 presidential election, he will be able to overcome Trump by about 13 percent of the vote and thus enter the White House. Bernie Sanders, on the other hand, is also very popular with American citizens. During the 2016 presidential competitions, he was eliminated from the scene as a result of secret lobbies of the Democratic leaders with Hillary Clinton. However, polls showed that if Sanders had reached the end of last round of the elections, he could have easily beat Trump with a 15% advantage of the vote.

What is certain is that the claims of the White House authorities and Donald Trump regarding the election of 2020 and their confidence in winning this election, is in fact escaping the existing reality. As noted, the Republican's defeat in the state of Alabama showed that even in the red states (which their vote has traditionally been in favor of the Republicans), it's quite possible that this party would be severely defeated in the upcoming presidential elections. Some surveys suggest that more than 30% of Republicans don't intend to vote for Trump in the next presidential election. This is the worst possible news for the party's leaders. Without a doubt, the presence of Trump at the White House would be a major crisis for the Republican Party. The crisis that the Republicans of America have to deal with its consequences for many years.