TEHRAN –Fears about the future—such as climate change, environmental degradation, wars, and pandemics—are impacting fertility decisions, leading some to have fewer children than desired.

As global fertility rates are falling, prompting warnings about population collapse, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)’s State of World Population report shows the real issue is a lack of reproductive agency—many people, especially youth, are unable to have the children they want.

World Population Day 2025 highlights this challenge, focusing on the largest-ever generation of young people. 

This year’s theme, “Empowering young people to create the families they want in a fair and hopeful world,” calls for ensuring youth have the rights, tools, and opportunities to shape their futures.

Young people are already driving change, but face major obstacles like economic insecurity, gender inequality, limited healthcare and education, climate disruption, and conflict. 

Economic factors, including housing, childcare costs, and job insecurity, are major limits on family size; 39 percent reported financial issues affecting their ability to have their desired number of children.

A UNFPA–YouGov survey of over 14,000 people in 14 countries found most wanted more children but were prevented by social, economic, or health barriers.

To respond to global population trends effectively, leaders must prioritize young people’s needs and voices. They need more than services—they need hope, stability, and a future worth planning for. As one youth activist told UNFPA, “Young people are not just thinking about their future children—they are thinking about the world those children will inherit.” Supporting their rights is key to sustainable development, peace, and human dignity.

In Iran, the national population week is observed from May 14 to 20 under the theme ‘children, life assets’.

This year, the days of the week were named as follows: Wednesday, May 14, ‘Father, mother, good sense of life’; Thursday, May 15, ‘Motherhood, elixir of youth’; Friday, May 16, ‘Desiring a child’; Saturday, May 17, ‘My lonely child’; Sunday, May 18, ‘I want to stay alive’; Monday, May 19, ‘My life in old age’; Tuesday, May 20, ‘Child-friendly society.’

Enacting the youth population law has stabilized the total fertility rate, slightly increasing the general fertility index over the past two years. After experiencing seven years of decline by about 20 percent, the fertility rate is now stabilized at around 1.6.

The total fertility rate has experienced a sharp decline since the Iranian calendar year 1394 (2015-2016), as the number of births reached 1.057 million in 1402 (2023-2024) from 1.570 million in 1394.  However, since the Iranian calendar year 1401 (March 2022–March 2023), the downward trend in fertility came to a halt.

However, it has intensified concerns over the decreasing trend in population growth in the coming years, and the probability of turning Iran into one of the oldest countries in the world, IRIB quoted Mohammad-Javad Mahmoudi, an official with the Civil Registration Organization, as saying.

“At best, Iran’s population with a total fertility rate of 2.5 will reach 102,890,000 by the next seven years,” Mahmoudi said.

An important factor contributing to lower birth rates in the country is the cost of living. Indeed, due to the high inflation rate and the expensive real estate sector, many families are choosing to have a smaller family size. The current one-child trend is prevalent in many young Iranian families, many of whom also have to support their aging parents.

Due to the financial constraints, late marriage is another new trend. Delayed marriage, along with extended intervals between childbirth, is another factor.

Many incentives have been introduced to encourage childbearing by the Iran Welfare Organization and the Ministry of Health. 

First, health care and medical benefits that are offered to childbearing mothers include:

Free or subsidized prenatal care. Public healthcare centers provide free or low-cost check-ups, lab tests, ultrasounds, and supplements (like folic acid and iron);

Insurance coverage: Most health insurance plans cover the majority of pregnancy-related expenses, including delivery (normal and cesarean)

Significant strides have been made in infertility treatment. Today, 100 percent of infertility treatment costs are covered by health insurance, and Iran has emerged as a regional leader in this field. Under certain programs, especially for low-income families, a monthly allowance is provided for children; and 

Maternal health programs: Government health centers offer maternal training and support (breastfeeding, infant care, etc.).

Secondly, maternity leave and workplace rights:

Maternity leave: Women are entitled to 9 months (270 days) of paid maternity leave, fully covered by social security.

Job security: Iranian labor law ensures a woman’s right to return to her job after maternity leave, and

Reduced working hours: In some sectors, pregnant women may receive reduced working hours or lighter duties.

Despite offered incentives to encourage childbearing in line with the youth population law, the desired growth in the youth population has not been accomplished yet. It is one of the most important challenges facing the country.

According to the latest census, the number of aged citizens in the country is growing by 3.62 percent, which is five times faster than the total population growth rate, which is 1.24 percent. For the time being, elderly women account for 52.3 percent of the total population, outnumbering men (47.7 percent).

The aging of individuals signifies increased life expectancy. However, population aging demonstrates a shift in the distribution of a country’s population towards older ages which is not a favorable indicator. 

Due to lower birth rates, and the rapid growth in the number of older adults in the country, Iran is expected to enter a phase of population aging between 2041 and 2046, with nearly a third of the population being aged 60 and older by 2050, Mehdi Malmir, an official with the National Population Headquarters said in June.

According to a recent report, the number of Iranians aged 65 and older is currently at 7.5 million, accounting for less than 10 percent of the country’s total population, Press TV quoted Malmir as saying.

However, the rate of population aging is growing rapidly in Iran, mainly because of lower birth rates, increased life expectancy, and other demographic trends, he added.

The official said that the Iranian baby boomer generation of the 1970s and early 80s, which currently accounts for a considerable part of the country’s population, will be considered elderly in the next 15 to 25 years.

“This change of structure requires serious planning,” Malmir said.

He said that the single elderly account for 31 percent of Iran’s total elderly population, saying the category will expand in the near future to significantly increase pressure on the Iranian health and pension systems.

The official said a bulk of Iran’s population of seniors lives in rural areas of the country, adding that the northern province of Gilan has the oldest population, while the southern provinces of Khuzestan, Hormozgan, and Sistan-Baluchestan are demographically better placed than the rest of the country.

Around 62 percent of female seniors and some 39 percent of male seniors in Iran live below the absolute poverty line, he further noted.

MT/MG