TEHRAN – Europe’s survival and its position on the global stage now hinge on a critical moment of self-reflection. 

If the continent fails to engage in such a reckoning, it risks remaining at the mercy of Donald Trump’s approach to international relations, an approach characterized by contempt and disregard for Europe’s interests and sovereignty.

The European Union's complex position today, shaped by the crossfire of Trump’s policies, leaves it facing two stark choices:

Fully submit to the United States, where Trump seeks to craft a new world order, a “Council of Peace” in which he, the sole decision-maker, governs while ignoring international law and human rights conventions. This would mean sidelining institutions that were established after World War II.

Opt for isolation, recognizing the strategic and economic vulnerabilities created by decades of reliance on the U.S., particularly since the end of World War II.

This dilemma prompted recent calls for new European policies centered around self-reliance. They advocated for stronger military capabilities, independent defense mechanisms, and revitalizing Europe’s economic resources. However, these calls are coming too late. 

Europe failed to anticipate the deep internal shifts in U.S. policy that began taking shape during Trump’s first term.

For years, Europe maintained its reliance on the transatlantic alliance and NATO, often going too far in alienating its neighbors to appease the U.S. administration. 

In doing so, it provoked Russia by threatening its national security in Ukraine, leading to war, and the loss of its primary natural gas supply. Similarly, Europe’s confrontations with Iran, particularly its misguided classification of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, have hurt European interests. 

Trump’s exit from the Iran nuclear deal cost Europe significant economic opportunities in a country rich in potential.

Today, Europe’s ability to rescue itself from its entangled position is limited and complicated. Its move toward a third option, seeking a new global position, requires strategic decisiveness, a level of willpower and clarity that is currently lacking. 

Attempting to negotiate with Washington no longer seems viable, especially given the weakening economic leverage Europe has after losing influence in its historic colonies in Latin America, Africa, and Asia.

Militarily, Europe’s capacity to create a global balance of power is insufficient to counter the U.S. or China and can barely manage a limited balance against Russia.

Geopolitically, Europe has lost control over vital global regions and key international passages, many of which are now dominated by the U.S. 

For Europe to assert itself, it must challenge the U.S. by directly and strategically shifting its international and domestic policies. 

This can be done across three key levels:

Technological and economic partnership with China

Europe must move beyond viewing China solely as a competitor or adversary. 

In a historic reconciliation with Russia, Europe must transform its relationship with Russia, not as a threat but as a strategic depth. 

Relations with the Global South 

Europe must build genuine partnerships with West Asia, Latin America, and Africa. This requires respecting international law. By doing so, Europe can tap into new investment opportunities and secure diversified energy sources.

Western Europe must now engage in an honest historical reflection to maintain its place and identity. If it does not, it risks continuing to be subject to Trump’s dismissive and arrogant approach, which undermines its sovereignty and ignores its interests.