TEHRAN– A political economy analyst, emphasizing that the Strait of Hormuz is no longer merely a security tool or a military leverage point but rather a "geo-economic asset," believes that Iran has borne the cost of securing, monitoring, and managing this vital waterway for decades without receiving a proportionate economic return from the global economy. The concept of "intelligent traffic management" represents a strategic maturity.

On the chessboard of global political economy, few points carry as much geopolitical and geo-economic weight as the Strait of Hormuz. Understanding the dynamics of this waterway requires moving beyond superficial analyses and adopting a deeper look at power and energy structures. In this regard, IRNA has interviewed Alireza Abbasi, a political economy and international trade analyst, to examine Iran's strategy regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the systemic consequences of any tensions in energy infrastructure from a broad and strategic perspective.

Answering this question: “Iran has always emphasized that it is pursuing the targeted management of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and that this waterway is not closed. How effective has this approach been so far in the current war, and has it contributed to Iran's deterrence power?”, Abbasi said: “To understand this issue, we must set aside the traditional view of the Strait of Hormuz. In modern analyses, Hormuz for Iran is not merely a "security corridor" or a military leverage point; rather, it is a "geo-economic asset." The structural reality is that Iran has borne the cost of securing, monitoring, and managing this vital waterway for decades without receiving a proportionate economic return from the global economy. The concept of "intelligent traffic management" represents a strategic maturity. This approach allows Tehran to regulate the "risk" and "rhythm" of energy transit without resorting to extreme military actions that could lead to uncontrollable tensions. In fact, if this management becomes institutionalized within sustainable and predictable frameworks, Iran will be elevated from a purely security actor to an "energy flow regulator." This is precisely the point at which intelligent deterrence is created—a tool that paves the way for securing Iran's economic rights in this global highway.”

To this question: “In the event of a miscalculation and an attack on Iran's vital infrastructure (such as electricity grids or energy facilities), what consequences would await global markets? Can such a blow be assessed as limited and localized?”, Abbasi replied: “The great error in conventional analyses is the assumption that one can strike the infrastructure of a key player in the Middle East and contain the consequences within that country's borders. Iran's infrastructure—from its interconnected electricity grids to its energy hubs and ports—has a multi-layered and relatively resilient architecture. Therefore, much of the talk about destroying such infrastructure serves more as psychological warfare. However, the more critical issue is the "domino effect" in an interconnected global economy. Iran is one of the pillars sustaining the flow of energy from the Persian Gulf. Any disruption to these infrastructures will immediately be pumped into the global economy through the following channels:

· Supply chain shock: Immediate disruption in the supply of crude oil, refined products, and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

· Soaring transit costs: A dramatic increase in insurance premiums and maritime shipping costs in the region.

· Market panic: Severe psychological reaction from financial markets and a sudden spike in energy prices.

· Imported inflation: The transmission of the energy price shock to industrial and dependent economies in Asia and Europe, which are already facing economic fragilities.

· Reciprocal action and mutual economic destruction: Retaliatory response from Iran, which could lead to escalating damage for the involved countries and neighbors.

· Investment freeze: Capital flight from regional energy projects due to an unclear outlook and increasing uncertainty.

In other words, Iran's infrastructural stability is not independent of the structural stability of the global energy economy. A blow to one means bleeding for the other."

EF/MA