TEHRAN – In recent months, tensions in the Persian Gulf have reentered the global spotlight—not through official declarations, but via a silent escalation playing out beneath the waves and between the straits. 

A string of maritime incidents, including ship seizures, sabotage operations, and contested maneuvers near the Strait of Hormuz, signal a renewed phase in the long-standing shadow war between Iran and its regional and international rivals.

Geopolitical chessboard beneath the waves

The Persian Gulf is more than a strategic waterway; it is a living barometer of regional power shifts. The reconfiguration of alliances post-Abraham Accords, coupled with the fluctuating presence of U.S. naval forces and growing Chinese and Russian maritime interests, has intensified the complexity of the Persian Gulf’s security architecture. Iran, amid this shifting terrain, has reasserted its deterrence policy by emphasizing control over its maritime borders and responding assertively to any provocations.

What distinguishes the recent maritime confrontations is Iran's evolving use of asymmetric tactics. Swarm boat strategies, drone surveillance, and strategic use of legal justifications—such as violations of maritime law or territorial infringements—have created a layered deterrent. This blend of legal framing and tactical innovation complicates traditional Western responses, especially in light of the U.S. Navy’s overstretched commitments and decreasing regional political will.

The revival of maritime tensions arrives as global energy routes remain vulnerable. While the Ukraine war has redirected European focus to the Black Sea, any disruption in the Persian Gulf—through escalation or miscalculation—would immediately reverberate across global oil markets. Recent warnings by the International Maritime Organization and insurance spikes on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz reflect this latent anxiety.

What the West Misses

Western narratives often frame Iran’s maritime moves as purely aggressive or destabilizing. What they fail to capture is Tehran’s perception of maritime sovereignty and the deep-seated belief that the Strait of Hormuz is not merely a conduit for oil, but a frontline in a decades-long confrontation. The lack of a regional maritime security framework, driven by Persian Gulf rivalries and external interference, leaves the space dangerously under-regulated.

If maritime escalation is to be averted, regional actors and global powers must pivot from symbolic gestures to structured engagement. Multilateral frameworks, including regional naval de-escalation pacts and recognition of mutual security concerns, must take precedence over sanctions and unilateral maneuvers. Only then can the Persian Gulf evolve from a perpetual flashpoint into a stable corridor of energy, commerce, and cooperation.