By Mohammad Hassaninejad

Don't count your chickens before they hatch: War surprises for Netanyahu, and by extension for Trump

July 18, 2025 - 10:34

TEHRAN- At midnight on Friday, 13 June 2025, just two days before a new round of Iran-U.S. negotiations to diplomatically resolve the Iranian nuclear issue, Netanyahu launched a surprise attack on Iran that had been years in the making.

Iranian chain of command was savagely targeted, alongside Iranian scientists and the country’s air defense systems. Israel, with support of major Western countries—who had provided Netanyahu with all necessary intelligence either directly or through the International Atomic Energy Agency—stepped in to carry out their "dirty work."         

Confident in his intelligence superiority, Netanyahu initiated a combined operation—ranging from acts of terrorism to media warfare—aimed at far-reaching goals way beyond crippling Iran's nuclear program. Surprise was the key element of this aggressive operation.

However, Netanyahu was soon met with unexpected major surprises from Iran in return.

The First Surprise: A Nation United

The first and perhaps most impactful surprise that Netanyahu and his Western backers, encountered was the surge of Iranian patriotism in defending the country’s sovereignty against foreign military intervention. Numerous accounts of Iranian patriotism during this period caught the attention of both friends and foes. From activists known for opposing the policies of the Islamic Republic—some even serving prison sentences—to Iranians living abroad with no history of empathy toward the government, were suddenly got united alongside the government under the flag, sending a unified message to the enemy: the Zionist regime led by Netanyahu is the common and immediate enemy of Iran and all Iranians, regardless of their ethnicity or political affiliation.

Although the record of foreign aggressions in Iran’s neighborhood over recent decades, alongside the ongoing bloodshed of Israel in Gaza over the past two years, has undoubtedly reinforced Iranians’ hatred of Israel and any foreign interference, Iranian nationalism and patriotism have roots and a history spanning thousands of years, unmatched by almost any other country in the region. Regardless of the type of government or rulers, and irrespective of ethnicity, the people of Iran have an unconscious, historically informed negative view toward any foreign intervention.

Cashing on decades of Iranophobic media campaigns and internal dissatisfaction with the economic hardship, Israel assumed that with its first serious surprise attack on Iran’s political and military decision-making chain of command, the ordinary people would cheerfully welcome the aggressors as saviors. This naïve illusion quickly ran into the hard wall of reality.

A comparison between Netanyahu’s statements in the early days and those during the final days of the aggression clearly illustrates his surprise. The number of civilian casualties—including women and children—and the extent of Israeli attacks on civilian infrastructures confirmed the correctness of the Iranian public’s sentiment. This not only mobilized social cohesion and patriotism but also further deepened the hatred of Israel within Iran.

The Second Surprise: Iran’s Unbreakable Chain of Command

The second surprise for Israel was Iran’s extraordinary ability to rapidly restore its military-security and defense decision-making structure. In the first hours of the attack, Iran’s highest military commanders and operational ranks were targeted and martyred. Such an event was made possible through the collection of detailed and precise intelligence, field presence, and resorting to terrorist methods. Such assault would be unbearable for majority of countries due to its scope. Israel expected to finish the war before Iran’s command and control chain could be rebuilt. However, it took only a few hours for Iran to recover its C4 and for the successors of the martyred commanders to be in control in the war room.

Even in cases where Israel targeted and killed the new commanders, Iran’s defensive operations did not experience any interruption. Netanyahu, a seasoned terrorist with decades of experience in war and bloodshed, is well aware of the importance of chain of command in this kind of operation. However, he seriously underestimated one point: Iranian commanders have spent the past four decades confronting foreign aggressions—from the United States to Saddam Hussein and Israel.

Many of them have their roots in the Basij and the Revolutionary Guard corps, which were formed and trained as irregular forces during the eight-year imposed war by Iraq. Meanwhile, the Supreme Leader of Iran and Commander-in-Chief has been closely familiar with all first- and second-tier command forces for decades and, even if several dozen commanders were targeted, he can quickly appoint other capable individuals as their successors.

The Third Surprise: Iran’s Unyielding Retaliatory power

The third major surprise for Netanyahu, which ultimately pushed him to seek a ceasefire through Trump, was the resilience and steadfastness of Iran’s military and defense forces. In the first hours of Israel’s aggression, many of Iran’s military installations and air defense systems were targeted, and in the attacks over the following days, the damages became even more severe. However, this situation did not stop Iran from responding to Israel’s attacks until the very last moment.

Despite continuous assaults on its bases and launch sites, and even though Iranian missiles were tracked until they reached Israel after being fired, Iran managed to maintain its retaliatory power, breaking Israel’s seven-decade-long dominance in the region. For the first time, Israel was forced to drink the poison it had long imposed with impunity or retaliation on its neighbors.

Iran’s insistence that Israel started the war but Iran would end it seemed unrealistic at first. Yet, despite the damages, Iran ultimately succeeded in proving its point. Israel, through its traditional military news censorship during the war, prevented the full scale and precision of Iranian missiles from becoming widely known. However, reports emerged following the war revealed the extent of their success. Reserve of the Iron Dome interceptors had almost been depleted.

Effectively, because of Netanyahu’s mischief, Israel came closer than ever to an existential threat. For decades he had falsely accused Iran for posing such a threat to Israel.

In a complex military-terroristic operation carried out with the full support and engagement of Western countries, particularly the United States, Iran’s peaceful nuclear facilities suffered significant damages, and a considerable number of senior military commanders and Iranian scientists were martyred. However, it seems that Iran might still have more surprises in coffer for Israel and its supporters. So that perhaps the next time they ponder to attack Iran, they will think twice—or even more.

A Persian proverb, once used incongruously by the Israeli Foreign Minister at the United Nations appears to be perfectly applicable to his terrorist Prime Minister: "Do not count your chickens before they hatch!”

 Mohammad Hassaninejad, Director-General for Int'l Peace & Security of  Iran’s Foreign Ministry