TEHRAN – In a mere six months, U.S. President Donald Trump has twice brought Iran and the United States to the brink of dangerous escalation, actions that could have severely harmed the Trump administration domestically and destabilized the entire West Asian region had not Iran exercised principle and restraint.

Trump began his second term last January proclaiming his desire to be the “president of peace.” Nothing he has done since reflects that vision. He has strained relations with Washington’s traditional European allies, increased the risk of direct confrontation with Russia after over three years of proxy war in Ukraine, escalated economic tensions with China, distanced himself from India – China’s second-most important rival – and initiated military action against Nigeria, Venezuela, and Iran. 

The aggressions in Africa and South America had no immediate consequences for the U.S., though analysts predict long-term repercussions. But the attacks against Iran backfired quickly. They prompted the country to pummel occupied territories and a U.S. base, and raised doubts about Washington’s commitment to diplomacy, especially considering Trump ordered the strikes while still engaged in nuclear negotiations with Iran. Tehran has said it will deliberately kill American soldiers and close the Strait of Hormuz if attacked again. 

What Trump has gained and lost against Iran so far

Undoubtedly, Iran suffered damage during the war, with its nuclear sites severely impacted and several top military officials assassinated. But despite Western media portrayals of the war as a success, the reality is a failure. Trump failed to achieve any of his stated or non-stated goals. Iran’s nuclear capabilities remain intact; even if the sites were “obliterated” as Trump claims, the knowledge and expertise remain within the country, and the Iranian public is more resolute in its nuclear demands from its government. 

Israel and the U.S. also believed the war would incite the population against the government, given years of economic sanctions that have fueled widespread grievances. This was a key element of the attack: disgruntled individuals attempting to overthrow the authorities would also provide opportunities for terrorist factions along Iran’s borders to operate, spreading chaos and insecurity—a pattern observed in Libya, Syria, and Iraq following U.S. interventions. Iran’s people and the government, however, only became more united. 

Trump again attempted to incite domestic unrest in late December. The U.S. and Israel portrayed armed terrorists and rioters as the same peaceful protesters calling for economic reforms in Iran’s bazaars, eventually turning demonstrations into deadly riots that saw cities set ablaze and security forces and civilians killed. Trump repeatedly attempted to galvanize the rioters in January, even suggesting he might attack Iran to assist them. His ultimate goal remained the same: to incite unrest against the government and pave the way for national insecurity and fragmentation.

The riots lasted only two days. Following the unprecedented violence, people distanced themselves from the rioters, and security forces swiftly arrested the armed agents various Israeli and American officials had boasted about having deployed in Iran. Millions of Iranians who took to the streets across the country on Monday – three million in Tehran alone – to condemn the rioters demonstrated not only that the Iranian government and security apparatus maintain full control, but also that Iranians have no faith that Trump, Israel, or Western-based “opposition” figures can save them.

Future depends on US realism 

Only hours after the massive rallies, Trump reverted to his old tactic of economic pressure, announcing additional 25% tariffs on any country trading with Iran. This means Iran may experience more challenges importing food and medicine, which would in turn cause prices to rise further. 

After all these failures, it appears what Trump is unable to understand is that like all his predecessors, he is trapped in a doomed cycle. No Western-based Iranian “leader” will ever be able to encourage people inside Iran to overthrow their government, and no amount of military or economic pressure will cause the Islamic Republic to collapse – as demonstrated in the past 47 years. 

The U.S. must recognize it is only losing money to so-called opposition figures with no influence and risks pushing Iran towards increasingly severe measures. A growing number of Iranian citizens are already calling for nuclear weapons following the June war, and many analysts believe Iran must fully align with China and Russia.

Looking ahead, Trump will face significant difficulties and risks attempting to topple the Islamic Republic or force it to abandon its nuclear program and defensive missile capabilities. However, securing a deal that bolsters his ego remains relatively straightforward, as Iranians have consistently expressed readiness for respectful dialogue. Trump will achieve this deal by finally recognizing the Islamic Republic’s control and understanding that a mutually beneficial outcome is the only viable path forward. 

By Faramarz Kouhpayeh