TEHRAN - Nearly two weeks after the joint U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran, global energy markets are entering a period of severe strain. Iran, facing direct attacks on its territory, has expanded security measures in the Strait of Hormuz — a step Tehran describes as a lawful response to foreign aggression and a necessary defense of its territorial waters.

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important energy chokepoint. Up to 18 million barrels of crude oil normally pass through it each day, accounting for roughly one‑fifth of global consumption. Europe depends heavily on these shipments for diesel, jet fuel, and refinery feedstock.

Since the U.S.–Israel aggression began on February 28, maritime traffic has collapsed. Major container carriers — including Maersk, MSC, Hapag‑Lloyd, and CMA CGM — have suspended transits. War‑risk insurance premiums have surged by up to percent, according to industry brokers quoted by Reuters, making voyages financially risky or impossible. Some insurers briefly withdrew coverage entirely.

European energy analysts warn that diesel and aviation fuel shortages could emerge within weeks. “There is simply no alternative route for much of this supply,” a European refining specialist told Financial Times. “Any prolonged disruption will hit Europe first.”

Iranian officials argue that the crisis is the direct result of U.S. and Israeli military escalation. Tehran maintains that it is acting within its sovereign rights to secure the strait and prevent vessels linked to “aggressor” from using the waterway to support hostile operations.

Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the IRGC Navy, reiterated this position in a statement posted on X. “Ships belonging to aggressors have no right to pass through the Strait of Hormuz,” he wrote. “If you have doubts, come closer and test it.”

The IRGC Public Relations Office also issued a statement carried on Wednesday, reporting that a Liberian‑flagged vessel owned by an Israeli company was struck by Iranian projectiles after ignoring repeated warnings from IRGC naval forces. The statement added that another container ship, Mayuree Naree, was also fired upon after “insisting illegally” on entering the strait despite multiple warnings.

According to the IRGC statement, “The Strait of Hormuz is under the intelligent and constant management of the brave naval forces of the IRGC. American aggressors and their partners have no right to cross.”

Maritime security analysts say that even an immediate ceasefire would not restore normal shipping. A specialist quoted by Al Jazeera explained that uncertainty alone would keep insurers cautious: “If the U.S. simply announces the war is over, that doesn’t remove Iran’s capability or its legal claim to defend its waters. Uncertainty itself becomes a form of risk.”

Oil prices have already surged, tanker traffic has slowed to a fraction of normal levels, and Europe faces the prospect of a fuel crunch. For many observers, the crisis highlights a broader reality: destabilizing Iran through military force carries global consequences, and the U.S.–Israel decision to open a new front in the region has placed the world’s most vital energy corridor at risk.