Iran’s strategic calculus and the changing balance of power
LONDON - Ayatollah Seyed Ali, the leader of the Islamic Revolution who was martyred in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, had issued a fatwa banning the production of nuclear weapons.
This decree was based on considerations of public interest. However, it remains subject to change if the public interest shifts and if the perceived deterrent benefits outweigh the potential harm to the country.
It may be that the new Leader Ayatollah Seyed Mojtaba Khamenei will not hold the same view and may believe that there is a need for such weapons as a deterrent in the face of aggressors.
This is another point that would put Trump in a very embarrassing position where he would be unable to do anything as he has already tried everything. Trump may claim victory and claim the enemy has fully surrendered. But since Iran refuses to surrender, the war will drag on. Since Trump does not want the war to drag on, he may withdraw and make concessions quietly behind closed doors.
Meanwhile, the Israeli occupation entity would remain at the forefront, and Iran would feel compelled to respond fundamentally to its invasions. This would have a major impact on the entity, which relies on American support like artificial life support. That could lead to the entity becoming a heavy burden on the West, especially on the United States.
The intention had been to destroy Iran and overthrow its system so that the Israeli occupation entity could expand enough and become the master of the entire region. But if the entity cannot remove Iran from the equation, then an entity of that size becomes useless and no longer serves America’s needs.
At that point, alternatives would be pursued, turning to powers that have demonstrated their effectiveness on the ground. This shift would likely result in a contraction of the Israeli occupation regime, especially as its image has been scrutinized and global public opinion increasingly highlights its brutality. Global public opinion, more than ever before, now sees Israel more harmful to humanity. The world now views it as a brutal and oppressive criminal regime.
Given the realities on the ground, solutions may be discussed Behind the scenes, including compensation and concessions to Iran and its regional allies through recognition of their influence and military capabilities. Direct dealings may begin. This may be the minimum price to pay, and something Iran might accept, because the global situation does not allow this war to continue for long. As a result, the Israeli occupation entity would end up being the biggest loser.
