TEHRAN - The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, launched on February 28, began with what analysts now describe as profound strategic miscalculations. Washington operated under the delusional belief that a decapitation strike, targeting Iran's Leader and top officials, would trigger an immediate collapse of the Iranian government, enabling the U.S. to "pick the next leader of Iran," as President Donald Trump himself stated.

Top U.S. economist Jeffrey Sachs characterized the decision-making process as lacking "sophisticated analyses," attributing the crisis to a small, insular group of advisors "who think like gangsters" with no expertise or deep knowledge. According to Sachs, President Trump overrode professional military and diplomatic counsel who advised against the operation.

The New York Times reported that even Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other White House officials believed until the eve of war that oil prices would only experience brief fluctuations, ignoring warnings that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 percent of global oil passes, and wage an economic war.

None of the anticipated outcomes materialized. The Iranian government did not collapse, no popular uprising occurred, and Tehran responded with sustained missile and drone campaigns while effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz to hostile actors.

Energy market devastation

The conflict has triggered a global energy crisis of historic proportions. Brent crude surged to nearly $120 per barrel before stabilizing around $110, marking a 60 percent increase since hostilities began. Natural gas prices in the European Union have risen by approximately 70 percent.

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen announced that the energy shock has added roughly $16 billion (14 billion euros) to the bloc's fossil fuel import costs in just one month. "We should be under no illusion that the consequences of this crisis for the energy markets will be short-lived," Jørgensen warned. "Because they won't". Even if peace were declared tomorrow, he stated, energy prices "will not go back to normal in the foreseeable future".

The Financial Times reported that oil soared 60 percent in March as the Iran war choked global energy supplies, with analysts warning of prolonged disruptions to global oil supply chains.

Global economic toll

The International Energy Agency has called the war in Iran "the greatest global energy security threat in history." Beyond immediate price spikes, the crisis threatens to trigger a global recession through energy inflation. The Financial Times has warned that higher costs for everything, including semiconductor inputs, might pop the AI bubble sustaining the American economy.

A food crisis comparable to that following Russia's invasion of Ukraine could follow, as the war disrupts not just food prices but global fertilizer flows, another fossil fuel-dependent product, at the brink of planting season. JPMorgan analysts noted that the conflict now exposes two major corridors of global energy trade simultaneously, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, "narrowing rerouting options and increasing system-wide supply-chain risk".

Macquarie Group estimates that if disruptions continue through June, Brent crude could hit $200 per barrel.

Diplomatic and strategic consequences

The United States has privately conceded that reopening the Strait of Hormuz may not be possible within the president's timeline for ending the war, with officials estimating restoration could take weeks or months. U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf, particularly the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait—whom Iran has formally protested to the United Nations for allowing use of their territory in the attacks— are now grappling with insecurity stemming from America's discredit and the collapse of American military hegemony and prestige. 

As Jeffrey Sachs warned, citing Henry Kissinger's famous adage: "To be an enemy of the United States is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal".