WASHINGTON Al Gore moves out of his official residence come January not to the White House he coveted, but to his home State of Tennessee and an uncertain political future that may include another presidential run in 2004.
"I think he wants to run again, that's what I read between the lines of his very elegant speech last night," AFP quoted political analyst Stephen Hess of the Brookings Institution here as saying Wednesday, referring to Gore's concession address.
In that speech, the Democratic vice president, a three-decade veteran of politics, admitted defeat to Republican President-Elect George W. Bush and declared: "As for what I'll do next, I don't know the answer." No problem, according to Eric Davis, political science professor at Middlebury College in Vermont: "There's roughly two and a half years before someone of his stature needs to make up his mind," based on recent U.S. election trends.
The analysts said his chances of winning the party's 2004 nomination hinged on his ability to keep a high profile despite losing the pedestal of the vice presidency and keep the party behind him.
But four years is proverbially "a lifetime in politics," and Gore, who will be 56 years old in 2004, would likely face strong challenges from other Democrats.
"There's usually a steady stream of ambitious people who look in the mirror and say Hey! I should be president of the United States,'" said Hess, who warned Gore could face resentment over his loss in the 2000 race.
"Once the period of mourning is over and everyone has sent their sympathy cards, Democrats will say Hey this is an election in which we should have won'" easily on the strength of historic prosperity and peace, he said.
To remedy those problems, Gore's should borrow the strategy used by Republican Richard Nixon, who after a 1960 defeat campaigned assiduously for congressional candidates, earning stature within the party, which backed his successful 1968 run, both analysts said.
But he probably should not run for office, Davis said, stressing: "He'd serve his long-term future better campaigning for others than on his own behalf." One option that would keep him in the spotlight "is write a book, combination memoir of his time in politics, or of this race, and policy treatise" and go on a national book tour, said Davis.
That may appeal to Gore, a former investigative journalist who told reporters in September that if he were not in politics he would like to be a writer, and who penned the best-selling 1992 environmental tome "Earth in the Balance." "His natural home ... since he's not a lawyer or a businessman, would be in one of three places: a university, a think tank, or a foundation," which could keep him in the public eye and involved in policy, said Hess.
It must be tempting: Gore lost the closest election in over 100 years, but won the popular vote by over 300,000 ballots out of more than 100 million cast only to lose by three votes in the Electoral College that picks the president.
But it won't be easy: "The chances of a defeated presidential candidate getting the next nomination are pretty slim," said Hess, noting that has happened just a handful of times this century.
Republican Tom Dewey ran in 1944 and 1948, Democrat Adlai Stevenson ran in 1952 and 1956. They lost twice. Republican Richard Nixon failed in 1960 but captured the White House in 1968.
Whatever his choice, "a lot of Gore's potential as a candidate is going to depend on the course of events over the next two years, what happens to the economy," said Davis.
A Democratic U.S. Congress would obstruct Republican President-Elect George W. Bush's plans and help swing the election to Gore, who declared late Wednesday "It is time for me to go." But the hundreds of supporters massed outside the building that houses the ceremonial office becomes Republican vice president-elect Dick Cheney's after he and Bush are inaugurated January 20 chanted another answer: "Gore in Four!"