Indian Offer of Talks With Kashmiri Separatists a Small Step Forward

August 18, 2002 - 0:0
NEW DELHI -- Informal talks on the future of Kashmir mark a small opening in an otherwise uninterrupted cycle of violence, but are unlikely to achieve any major breakthrough, analysts said Friday.

The head of the newly-formed Kashmir committee, Ram Jethmalani, arrives in the restive Himalayan state on Friday for a three-day visit during which he hopes to talk to the main separatist alliance and other groups about participating in forthcoming elections there.

The initiative comes three months after heightened tensions between nuclear rivals India and Pakistan -- who both claim Kashmir -- led to the deployment of a million soldiers along their shared border, AFP reported.

In July, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell and British Foreign Minister Jack Straw, during visits to South Asia, insisted on a need for improvement regarding human rights in Indian Kashmir.

The main separatist alliance, the All Party Hurriyat conference, is also under enormous international pressure to engage in a political process to end the bloodshed.

"The government needs to show political progress and the Hurriyat needs to show that they are exploring the political space," said political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan.

This month the Indian government announced state elections would be held in Kashmir in four phases beginning on September 16.

At the same time, it gave its blessing to Jethmalani, a former law minister, to start a dialogue with Muslim separatists.

The Hurriyat has said it will not take part in the elections, but has accepted the offer of talks.

Ajai Sahni, director of the institute of conflict management, said both sides now had reasons to show they were willing to talk.

"The government wants to try to demonstrate to the world that every effort has been made to secure maximum political participation in the election. "While the Hurriyat realises terrorism is no longer acceptable after September 11 and is thinking about a strategy to get into a political process."

More than 36,500 people have died in Indian Kashmir since the launch of an insurgency against Indian rule in 1989.

India accuses Pakistan of arming and funding the rebellion, a charge which Islamabad denies.

Analysts do not put too much hope on the discussions succeeding, stressing that many others have failed since a cease-fire between the government and militants broke down two years ago.

But they say it is a "step forward" which could break the cycle of uninterrupted violence.

Jethmalani wants to persuade the separatists to take part in the elections, which they have refused to do because they feel that would legitimize Indian rule in the state.

The Hurriyat only wants to discuss the future of Kashmir and wants Pakistan to be involved at some point, something India absolutely refuses to consider.

"In the past the negotiations failed because the Hurriyat wanted Pakistan to be involved. That is not acceptable to the government of India," said Rangarajan. "But a narrow window is open. In the government there is a mood for political dialogue. And for the separatists it is significant that they want to talk."

There are two other significant factors, according to Kanti Bajpai, professor of international politics at New Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University. The Hurriyat has not explicitly called for a boycott of the election, which it did at the last polls in 1996, and for the "first time they have publicly said they will negotiate with someone who has a connection with the government."

On his side, Jethmalani has said separatist leaders imprisoned by the Indian government should be released.

"Nobody has a motive to change (their position)," according to Sahni.

But, he added, neither side has "anything to lose" in the discussions.