What features will be in – and left out of – the next iPhone

May 26, 2008 - 0:0

Oh, look, people are queuing already for the next-generation iPhone - the one that hasn't been announced, whose existence can only be inferred by the behavior of those around it. Truly the second-generation iPhone is the Higgs boson of today's technology world: huge amounts of effort being put into deducing its existence from the tiniest clue.

While this metaphor does put Steve Jobs into the putative position of the creator of the universe – a position that his fans and even he might be comfortable with – it tends to leave aside a question that seems worth examining.
With Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference still more than two weeks away (it starts on Monday June 9), and pretty much every fan in the Apple constellation scratching their chin and saying ""Wouldn't it be cool if iPhone 2 had this?"" (where ""this"" may be GPS, 12-megapixel camera, video, Skype, a battery that goes 20 days between recharges, an FM radio and a coffeemaker with optional taser attachment for when you find yourself in the wrong side of town.
And pretty quickly it goes from ""wouldn't it be cool if"" to searches for evidence that will back up these slightly off-beam theories. It's like science, except less scientific, since it's trying to wish something into existence, rather than accept that some things don't exist.
If you want to see it in action, have a look at this Macrumors thread, which goes from a little item on Gizmodo and spins off into 20-plus pages of forum-driven supposition, theory, fact-gathering and world-class generating of castles in the air.
For future reference
So let me give you my guide to knowing what Apple's going to release next. These methods, supplied free of charge, can be used when any hubbub builds up over what Apple is going to do next in some field or other.
People constantly overlook the fact that Apple cleaves to the belief that something is finished not when you can't add anything, but when you can't take anything away. The (first) iPhone doesn't do voice dialing, speed dialing, video, doesn't offer camera options, can't forward SMS, and doesn't offer multiple selections.
Most of the world that uses computers is familiar with Microsoft's Windows, which means that people are inured to dialog boxes that could, with a bit of effort, be turned into medium-sized blog posts, and preference boxes that offer more options than a futures market.
Apple doesn't do this. It pares down the interface (rather as it does with the hardware) to the bare minimum. ""Timeout error"", Mac OS X tells me when it can't connect to my home wireless network.
This has a lot to recommend it over the Windows message, which goes something like ""Windows was unable to connect to the network My Home Network due to an error whose cause could not be ascertained"".
It will only include surprising new technology if it's been standardized but neglected a while.
USB only became popular because the first iMac used it, but it had been around a while. Wi-Fi got its big kick through being built in to the first iBook, but wasn't new; Dell was able to follow almost at once because 802.11b was a ratified standard. Bluetooth got its first big break for computers (it was already all over mobile phones) in Mac OS X in March 2002. None of them new; but Apple was able to see ways to make good use of them.
This is axiomatic of things that come from Apple, because it knows that it caters to a market that is prepared to spend more on good design.
This always leads to one corner of the tech market complaining that ""it's so EXPENSIVE!"" as though nothing expensive could possibly sell. This is a category mistake. Apple isn't in the technology business to rule the world; it's in it to make stonking profits.
Neither precludes the other. Ask the PC companies that make tiny margins making commodity hardware.
The iPhone was going to have a sliding keyboard. It would have a touch screen. It would do 3G. It would only do GSM. It would have GPS. It would run Linux. There's no end to the speculation, and just because someone overheard someone who was using an Apple laptop saying it doesn't make it true.