Sudan, Africa’s largest country and once described as the Arab world’s food basket, is on the brink of calamitous events with dire repercussions for the entire region. As the Jan. 9 referendum on the south’s future approaches, a war of words is raging between President Omar Bashir and his deputy and president of the semi-autonomous Southern Sudan Salva Kiir.

Sudan will witness drastic changes regardless of how things turn out in the coming weeks. If the Jan. 9 referendum does take place it is almost certain that the people of the south will opt for independence. They already have the backing and support of the United States. If, on the other hand, the vote is delayed then a break out of violence cannot be avoided.
Sudan’s misfortunes are the product of decades of failed policies which have denied this resource-rich country many chances of becoming one of the wealthiest nations in Africa. After gaining independence in 1956, the country quickly slipped into civil war between the predominantly Arab and Muslim north and the largely Christian and animist south. That war lasted for 17 years draining the state’s budget and resources, but it also allowed for military dictatorships to assume power.
The civil war resumed in 1983 when President Jaafar Nimeiry suspended the Addis Ababa agreement, which was reached in 1972, and reversed a pledge to give the southern region considerable autonomy. The second civil war lasted until 2005 when both parties agreed to hold a referendum on the south’s future.
Peace negotiations between the south, led by Sudan’s Peoples Liberation Movement, and the central government in Khartoum finally bore fruit in the Nairobi Comprehensive Peace Agreement of Jan. 9 2005, granting Southern Sudan autonomy for six years, to be followed by a referendum about independence.
Secession would seem catastrophic for the north but after decades of struggle and violence it is probably the most practical outcome. The north can still regroup and build a thriving society. Today it has the fastest growing economy in Africa, thanks to its oil resources. It also needs to contain the problem of Darfur and resolve it peacefully, avoiding a southern-style break up in the future.
But the bitter lesson for Sudan is yet to be fully comprehended. One-man rule and the oppression of political opposition and of minorities will only compound the challenges facing this country. Bashir can embark on nation-wide reforms, national reconciliation and resolving problems with Sudan’s neighbors. He is today in a position to carry out these programs in order to safeguard Sudan’s future.
As for the south, which clearly wants separation, the north can extend a hand of friendship and maintain good relations with this promising region, which remains strategically important for Sudan.
Photo: Sudanese President Omar Bashir carries a peace flame during celebrations to commemorate “Peace Day in Africa” at the International University of Africa in Khartoum on September 21, 2010. (Reuters photo