For almost two years now, since the Israeli assault on Gaza in December 2008, Turkey's new regional orientations have been subject to intense debate in Israel's academic and media circles.

Yet, if the diplomatic crisis between the once close allies has shown anything it is the failure of Israeli academics and policymakers to understand the new dynamics of Turkish politics.
Media coverage in Israel indicates that the Netanyahu government deals with Turkey as if it is still ruled by coalition governments and influenced by media barons and top generals.
In the 1990s, Israel established strong ties with these power centers, while ignoring public opinion and the civilian administration. Over the past decade, since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, Turkey has undergone fundamental change, but Israeli mentality remained unchanged.
In Israel, the AKP government, which received half of the electoral votes in the latest parliamentary elections, is often described as Islamo-fascist. Calls for the Turkish military to intervene and “protect the secular traditions of the country from Islamic influences” are frequently made by Israeli intellectuals. Moreover, Israeli policy-makers are still viewing their relations with Turkey from a military-security perspective. As a result, the belief that ties with Ankara can be maintained by winning over the Turkish military persists.
This line of thought was clearly expressed in an interview by Israeli President Shimon Peres with Defense News a few months ago. In that interview Peres said: “Turkey is the only country in the world where a non-democratic institution, the army, was in charge of preserving democracy. And they did it. Now, the role of the army has changed, and the question is whether (Prime Minister Recep Tayyip) Erdogan will lead his Muslim population towards a democracy or that democratic forces will demand a more Islamic state”.
In response a Turkish columnist commented: “Those who think that Israel's counterpart in Ankara is the Chief of the General Staff are overtly mistaken.”
“In Ankara,” he went on saying, “there has been a silent revolution questioning the political role of the military and trying to push it back to the barracks. Israelis should understand that their counterpart in Ankara is the elected civilian government.”
Concerns
In addition, in dealing with Turkish politics, Israelis tend to ignore the role of public opinion, which has become a key element in the formation of Turkey's new foreign policy. Most Turks are convinced today that Israel has been exploiting the secular-religious divide in Turkey to serve its interests.
Israelis seem to have failed to notice that anti-Israeli sentiments are no longer limited to Islamist circles but have also penetrated the more secular groups. Most Turkish analysts believe that without taking into account what the Turkish public thinks, it is impossible to repair Turkish-Israeli relations. Israeli columnists have expressed concerns about these latest developments.
Zvi Bar'el wrote in Haaretz, a major Israeli daily: “The serious damage was caused by the swift shift in Turkish public opinion, which once formed the basis of Turkey's warm relations with Israel. The Turkish public could not tolerate insulting its envoys (a reference to the bad treatment of the Turkish ambassador in Tel Aviv by Israeli officials) or the killing of Turkish civilians (a reference to the killing of ten Turks by Israeli Special Forces aboard the Free Gaza Flotilla last May). It is the public that takes to the streets when it is not satisfied with its government. They are vocal when their government's policies are not to their liking.”
Israel may or may not realize that a new regional order is in the making in the Middle East, in which Turkey plays an important role. What is certain, however, is that the rise of new Turkey is seen by Israel as a threat to its national security. It is difficult to see Turkish-Israeli relations improving any time soon.
Dr. Marwan Kabalan is Director at the Damascus Centre for Economic and Political Studies.
(Source: Gulf News)
Photo: Turkey's president Abdullah Gul (front) arrives at the Parliament hall for his speech as Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (2R) and ministers applaud during the opening of Turkish parliamentary year in Ankara, on October 1, 2010. (Getty Images)