TEHRAN - Daniel Serwer, a senior research professor of Conflict Management, is sure that the U.S. will be isolated and its allies would lose confidence in it if Congress rejects the hard-won nuclear deal with Iran.

“Defeat of the deal would separate the U.S. from its allies and undermine confidence in American leadership in many countries,” Serwer said in an interview with the Tehran Times and Mehr news agency.

Following is the text of the interview:

Q: Iran and Russia have launched an effort to bring peace to Syria. How do you evaluate this?

A: There really is nothing to evaluate yet. The Iranian four-point proposal, which has been public for some time, requires a good deal more detail before it can be evaluated. The key question is how the transition will be handled. No political solution will work that keeps Bashar al Assad in power, because the Syrian opposition will continue fighting.

Q: Some experts believe that nuclear deal would open up an opportunity for cooperation between Iran and the West to work on issues such as the conflict in Syria. Do you agree with this view?

A: Not really, even if I would like to see it happen. Iran with the nuclear agreement will have substantial resources. The question is how it will use those resources. Hardliners in Tehran will presumably argue for more support to Iran’s allies in the region: Bashar al Assad and Hezbollah, Iraqi Shia militias, Houthi forces in Yemen and Hamas. The U.S. and Europe will not welcome moves of that sort. There will be enormous pressure on the U.S. administration to push back, especially against Hezbollah.

Q: What is your assessment of the Turkish airstrikes against ISIL and PKK positions in Syria and Iraq?

A: The Americans think more Turkish help against ISIL is vital. The U.S. and Turkey have different opinions about the Kurds in Syria, though at this point PKK attacks inside Turkey are making that irrelevant.

Q: Has the U.S.-led coalition succeeded to achieve its goals against ISIL in Syria and Iraq?  

A: The coalition has not reached its goals, but it has blocked ISIL advances and has rolled them back in some areas (Tikrit, Kobane, Tal Abayd). Without a better formula for who will govern in ISIL-controlled territory, I don’t see how the coalition can “win.”
 
Q: The U.S. Congress is reviewing the Iran nuclear deal and it is possible to kill it. What will happen in that event? 

A: It is possible but not likely that U.S. lawmakers would kill the deal, but in order to do so they would need a 2/3 majority in both houses of Congress. That will be difficult to get. If they do kill the deal, Iran and the P4+1 will have some important decisions to make. Do they abandon the deal completely, or do they implement it without the U.S.? If the deal is abandoned, what will Iran do?
 
Q: In an interview aired August 9 on CNN's “Fareed Zakaria GPS,” Obama said the United States’ role in global politics could be affected by the deal. What do you think of this statement? 

A: Defeat of the deal would separate the U.S. from its allies and undermine confidence in American leadership in many countries. It would be like the Senate’s rejection of the League of Nations almost 100 years ago, a move that isolated and weakened the U.S.  

Q: Is it possible that the U.S. and EU adopt different strategies toward Iran if Congress aborts the deal?
 
A: It is possible, though the U.S. might try to apply “secondary” sanctions by barring European companies from doing business with the U.S. if they do business with Iran. That would create big problems with America’s closest allies.
 
Q: Why European countries are more eager than the U.S. to revive their relations with Iran? 

A: Europe needs Iranian oil and gas much more than the U.S. does. Our companies are far less interested in doing business with Iran than some European countries. Geography is destiny I’m afraid.


*****Highlight*********

Professor Serwer says the U.S.-led coalition against ISIL “has not reached its goals”