Investing in the next 'big thing'
February 22, 2009 - 0:0
A San Francisco company has launched a tool to help investors decide where to put their money.
YouNoodle uses a scoring system that plans to turn the business of investment into more of a science.The software measures the “buzz” surrounding a company via blogs and media reports along with a variety of factors including website traffic.
The scoring tool covers nearly 30,000 start-ups, ranging from biotechnology to gaming software.
“By watching the way the world responds to a start-up, we can give advance notice of what's hot and what's not,” said co-founder Bob Goodson.
Researchers adjust the algorithm (the mathematical rating), based on more than 150,000 start-up related stories, every day. Those reports are then analysed in much the same way that Google ranks content on a web page.
“While dollars are regarded as the best indicator of success, there are other good indicators out there before there is revenue,” Mr Goodson told the BBC.
“Take something like Facebook, which is an example from Web 2.0. For two years there was rapid growth, rapid expansion, hiring, media coverage and so on without the revenue.
“So if you are in the business of needing to understand what's hot, then you need to know what is moving before the revenue numbers come through. For investors, getting in early is where the real money is made,” explained Mr. Goodson.
He has also worked on modeling the likelihood of terrorist attacks for the Pentagon and describes the start-up tool as “an early warning system” that highlights to people the potential of a company.
“Maybe 20 years ago if you were a venture capitalist in Silicon Valley, you knew everyone through your network and everyone came to you,” said Dr Gourley, who is director of data tools.
“Today the world is a lot bigger and there is a lot of information out there. We wade through the noise and create value by making sense of it all and putting a spotlight on companies that could easily slip under the radar, because they don't come through the old boys' network.”
While Dr. Gourley talked of hoping to “create a meritocracy” for the start-up world, the reality is that venture capitalists have always relied on their trusted networks, personal referrals and their own gut instinct.
Ron Conway is a business “angel”, who invests at an early stage of a company's life. Of the more than 500 start-ups he has put his money into, his successes include Google, PayPal, Digg and Ask Jeeves.
He is affectionately known as the Godfather of Silicon Valley for having placed more bets on internet start-ups than anyone else in the Valley.
He told the BBC he thought the scoring system “sounded like a useful tool that I think would be helpful to investors”. However he also said that for him, the personal connection was what counted.
“Most of my deal flow comes from the people in the more than 500 companies I have invested in. If the company is recommended to me by someone I have done business with in the past, then that will move it way up my list.
(Source: BBC)