The recent escalation in the Lebanese political crisis and the different approaches adopted by foreign mediators in dealing with the situation once again illustrated the complexity of the issue and the necessity to conduct an accurate analysis about the country’s various political parties.

After the breakdown of the Saudi-Syrian initiative and the resignation of the opposition ministers from the cabinet, Lebanon experienced another political standoff due to the dispute over the US-backed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), which is investigating the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri. In fact, the indictment issued by the STL has changed the political atmosphere in Lebanon, and the current situation is completely different from the pre-indictment period. In other words, almost everyone believes that one cannot apply the solutions of the past to the present dilemma. Thus, the so-called international contact group, consisting of regional mediators, was not able to provide the Lebanese opposition with satisfactory proposals. It is said that the indictments are against some Hezbollah members, and this complicates the situation.
Hezbollah has always tried to defend the national sovereignty of Lebanon and many Lebanese, including both Shia and Sunni factions, regard the movement as the real resistance against Israeli and Western interference. Hezbollah successfully resisted against the Israeli occupation. Therefore, accusing Hezbollah of plotting against the former prime minister is definitely a U.S. and Israeli propaganda move meant to undermine the popularity of the resistance.
Now Hezbollah and other opposition groups believe that the Saudi-Syrian initiative cannot be revitalized in the current situation because there is no guarantee that the preferred terms and conditions will be implemented. Saad Hariri, the current caretaker prime minister, indicated his inclination to jeopardize the national interests, resulting in the final deadlock over the proposed initiative. So it is extremely unwise to follow the terms of a dead initiative when the STL has issued the initial indictment targeting the resistance movement.
Many believe that Lebanon is a symbol of real democracy in the region and those trying to impose dead or undemocratic solutions on its people will certainly endanger the process of peaceful negotiation among the country’s various political groups. The recent meeting between the US ambassador and a Lebanese MP shows that the United States is again meddling in Lebanon’s internal affairs in order to satisfy Israel’s interests at the expense of Lebanese national unity.
Now many believe that the opposition, led by Hezbollah, is paving the way for a democratic solution to determine the country’s destiny. In addition, Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt’s decision to distance his Progressive Socialist Party of Lebanon from Saad Hariri’s March 14 Alliance and to move closer to the resistance is another indication that the next Lebanese government will have a bright future.