By Saeed Sobhani

Biden maneuvers in Texas and Wisconsin

September 7, 2019

Tehran-Former US Vice President Joe Biden has good standing in public and state polls. This has led to concern for US President Donald Trump. On the other hand, polls show that Biden has been able to challenge Trump in two key states, Wisconsin and Texas.

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup in Wisconsin, according to a Marquette University Law School poll released on Wednesday.

Biden is up over Trump by 51% to 42% among registered voters in Wisconsin. The President also trails Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who tops Trump 48% to 44%, just barely outside the margin of error.

Trump is tied against Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (45% each) and Kamala Harris of California (44% each).

Numbers this far out from a general election are hard to read, and could change between now and November 2020. They should be thought of as a snapshot in time rather than a predictor of the future.

Among the Democratic candidates, Biden leads the pack with 28% of registered Democrats, Democratic-leaning independents and independents who don't lean toward either party saying he was their first choice, followed by 20% for Sanders and 17% for Warren. Sanders beat out former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Wisconsin Democratic primary, 57% to 43%.

South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg received 6% support in the poll, followed by Harris at 3% and businessman Andrew Yang with 2%. All other candidates received 1% or less in the poll. More than 1 in 10 voters (13%) said they didn't know who their first choices for the Democratic nominee were.

Biden is by far the most favorable candidate: 70% of the Democratic sample had a positive opinion of him, followed by 63% for Sanders, 53% for Warren, 37% for Buttigieg and 35% for Harris.

"Large portion of WI Dem voters don't have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of prez candidates yet, other than Biden and Sanders," Charles Franklin, director of the MU Law poll, said in a tweet.

Just slightly more approve of the job Trump is doing than plan to vote for him in 2020 at this point. Trump receives a higher approval rating in Wisconsin than he does nationally: 45% approve of the job he's doing as President and 53% disapprove -- relatively unchanged since April (46% approved, 52% disapproved). His favorable was just slightly lower: 42% favorable, 53% unfavorable.

The Marquette University Law School poll was conducted by phone from August 25 through 29 among a random sample of 800 registered voters with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. The survey includes a sample of 444 registered Democrats, independents who lean Democratic and pure independents, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points.

Texas Poll: Biden leads 2020 Democrats by 6 points

Also The hill reported that Former Vice President Joe Biden leads the Democratic presidential primary field by 6 points in Texas, according to a new poll. 

Twenty-four percent of Lone Star State Democratic primary voters said they would choose Biden, based on the Texas Lyceum survey released Thursday. He’s trailed by former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, whom 18 percent of voters picked as their top candidate.O’Rourke’s support is much higher in his home state than nationally, based on polls. A RealClearPolitics average of national polls shows O’Rourke at 2.1 percent support, far behind the top-tier candidates. 

The new Texas poll found Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) neck and neck for the third and fourth place spots, at 15 and 13 percent, respectively.Texas-born Julián Castro, a former Housing and Urban Development secretary, is tied at 4 percent with Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.). South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) are tied at 3 percent, based on the poll. All other candidates polled at 2 percent or less.The question regarding the 2020 field surveyed 358 voters who said they would vote in the Democratic primary between Aug. 16 and 25. The margin of error is plus or minor 5.18 percentage points. President Trump won Texas in 2016, but Democrats are looking to seize on the state, which recent elections have shown to be growing more purple. 

In 2018, O’Rourke narrowly lost a Senate election to Sen. Ted Cruz (R).Texas is one of 15 states to hold its primary on March 3, Super Tuesday.

Poll shows Biden beating Trump in Texas

Also Politico reported that A new polls spells danger for President Donald Trump’s reelection chances in one of the unlikeliest of places: Texas.The Quinnipiac University poll shows that Joe Biden would top Trump by four points — 48 percent to 44 percent — in a general election matchup there, an outcome the ruby red state hasn’t seen in four decades.But even while Biden is the only Democratic presidential candidate to beat Trump in a head-to-head matchup in Texas, the poll signals trouble for the president there in that it found five other candidates within the poll’s margin of error, including home-state politicians Beto O’Rourke and Julián Castro.

Perhaps surprisingly, the next strongest candidate in the state was Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who the poll found losing to the president by only 1 point, 46 percent to 45 percent. Next was South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, whose rising star landed him within 2 points of Trump in a head-to-head matchup.The race for 2020 starts now. Stay in the know. Follow our presidential election coverage.

By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time.But among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, the poll found that Biden continues to hold a commanding lead in the primary field, with 30 percent of voters backing Biden, followed by 16 percent for O’Rourke, 15 percent for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and 11 percent for Warren.Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Castro were far behind with 4 percent each, followed by Buttigieg with 3 percent. No other Democrat topped 2 percent in the poll.But as the president continues to struggle in the Rust Belt states that handed him the White House in 2016 — in part due to Biden's popularity with working-class voters — his campaign has begun to seek out alternate paths to a second term, including plans to compete in blue states like New Mexico, Nevada and New Hampshire.

O’Rourke has previously caught flak for his insistence than Texas and its 38 Electoral College votes could be in play in next year’s election, but Biden’s strong performance in the GOP stronghold will bolster his argument that he is the most electable 2020 Democrat.

Though O’Rourke, who has faltered in more recent national and early state polling, jumps up to second place in the Texas poll, Democratic voters there would much rather see him ditch his White House bid to challenge GOP Sen. John Cornyn, by a nearly 2-1 margin.And though the former Texas congressman put up a fight in his 2018 run to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz, earning him early presidential front-runner chatter, he has faltered in more recent national and early-state polling. While he jumps up to second place in the Texas poll, Democratic voters there would much rather see O'Rourke ditch his White House bid to challenge GOP Sen. John Cornyn by a nearly 2-1 margin.

The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,159 Texas voters from May 29 to June 4, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Among 407 Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, the margin of error is plus or minus 5.8 percentage points.