By Saeed Sobhani

Surprising Survey in Iowa

May 22, 2019

TEHRAN-The state of Iowa is the first state in which the Democratic primaries are held. Recent polls in the state suggest that people like former US Vice President Joe Biden and Democratic Senator Bernie  Sanders have no easy way to win this small and decisive state! As Independent reported, Joe Biden may be leading national polls among Democratic voters, but a new poll shows his dominance doesn’t necessarily extend to Iowa.Mr. Biden is matched by Bernie Sanders in the state, a sharp drop from his 11 point lead in a separate poll last month. Both candidates can claim 24 percent support in the state, which will vote first in the nominating process next year.

Mr Biden and Mr. Sanders are followed in the new poll by several candidates with significant showings, including Pete Buttigieg (14 percent), Elizabeth Warren (12 percent), and Kamala Harris (10 percent). Reading into the polls just a bit more, Mr. Biden has more to worry about than just Mr. Sanders, too.Ms. Warren stands out as the most liked candidate in the race, with a favorability rating at 78 percent — the top in the race. She is followed by Mr. Sanders, who is the next closest with 71 percent.“Good news for Elizabeth Warren: her favourability exceeds that of any other candidate in the race and her name recognition is near-universal,” said principal pollster Jane Loria in a news release.

In some states, we see a large spread between the front-runners and the so-called second-tier in the excitement barometer, but in Iowa, the candidates are all pretty tightly clustered. When we ask respondents to identify the five candidates they’re most excited about, 54% say Warren, followed by Biden (53%), then Harris (53%), Sanders (49%), and Buttigieg (46%)

The terrain looks much better for Mr. Biden when looking at the other states that follow close after Iowa, however. In New Hampshire, Mr. Biden beats Mr. Sanders 36 percent to 18 percent. In South Carolina, meanwhile, Mr. Biden recently got 46 percent support compared to Mr. Sanders’ 15 percent. But, any fragility in Iowa could have real consequences for Mr. Biden’s third presidential race. The state has an outsized influence on the presidential nominating process, and a loss there would show potentially significant vulnerabilities for the former vice president. The Iowa Starting Line/Change Research Poll was released on Monday, and the Iowa caucuses will be held in January.

Of course, some other polls show the relatively comfortable Biden or Sanders win in Iowa. As The Hill reported, Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are tied atop the field of Democratic presidential hopefuls in Iowa, according to a new poll, suggesting that the crucial first-in-the-nation caucus state is still in play for both men.

An Iowa Starting Line/Change Research poll released on Monday shows Biden and Sanders each receiving 24 percent support among likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa. They’re trailed by South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who received 14 percent of the vote, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who came in fourth with 12 percent, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) who also had double figures at 10 percent support.

The tie between Biden and Sanders in the Hawkeye State differs from most recent national polling results that have shown the former vice president trouncing his competition, often by double digits. A Fox News survey released last week, for instance, showed Biden with an 18-point lead over Sanders, the poll’s second-place finisher. And a recent left-leaning poll of South Carolina voters, an important Democratic primary state, showed Biden leading Sanders by more than 30 points.

The Iowa poll, however, shows a much closer race between Biden and Sanders for the all-important opening caucus. The former vice president has double the support of Sanders among voters 65 and older — 30 percent to 15 percent, according to the Iowa Starting Line/Change Research poll. But Sanders carries a significant lead over Biden among voters between the ages of 18 and 31 — 41 percent compared to Biden’s 9 percent.

Meanwhile, Biden outperforms Sanders among female voters, according to the poll, taking 26 percent support compared to Sanders’s 19 percent. Sanders, however, has more backing from male voters, 29 percent of whom say they plan to support the Vermont senator in 2020. Biden has 21 percent support among men.

To be sure, the Iowa caucuses are still nine months away, and caucusgoers in the state are often wary to commit too early to any particular candidate.

Still, Sanders performed well there in 2016, coming in a close second to Hillary Clinton in the caucuses that year. The Iowa Starting Line/Change Research poll released Monday found that 45 percent of those who caucused for Sanders in 2016 still say that the Vermont senator is their first choice in 2020. The poll surveyed 615 likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa from May 15-19. It was a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points. There is no doubt that in the near future there are other polls in Iowa and other US states that could conflict with the recent poll! An issue that should not lead to surprise audiences.

The victory or the defeat of any Democratic candidate in the Iowa State Election can also affect the votes of other states in the United States. This is what Biden and Sanders are both concerned about. Although the former vice president of the United States is now trying to identify himself as a victor of the Democratic primaries in the United States now, referring to US polls, Biden knows well that his defeat in the Iowa elections could It will also affect the results of public polls in the United States.


 

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