TEHRAN- US officials fear key Arab allies may turn more hostile toward one another; Abu Dhabi's OPEC withdrawal aligns with American interests and deepens tensions with Riyadh.

 A deep rift has emerged between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates during the recent US-Iran war, according to an Axios report citing American and regional sources. Simultaneously, the UAE's formal exit from OPEC, widely seen as a move to align with Washington, points to unprecedented fractures within the Persian Gulf federation.

The American news outlet Axios, quoting US and regional officials, has reported that the war between the United States and Iran has caused a "deep rift" between Washington's two key Persian Gulf allies: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

According to the report, the Trump administration was slow to recognize the seriousness of the divide and ultimately chose a policy of non-intervention. At the onset of the crisis, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio informed Riyadh and Abu Dhabi that Washington would not take sides.
Senior US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, have expressed deep concern that these two key Arab allies may emerge from the war even more hostile toward one another than ever before — a scenario that could severely destabilize the regional balance of power.

Political observers and energy analysts believe the rift is not merely a temporary disagreement but reflects deeper strategic divergences between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a US think tank, told Axios: "The exit [from OPEC] was a surprise in timing (at least to me), but in some ways has been brewing for some time. It prompts the question whether there will be more competition than cooperation in the region and what the governance of energy markets will look like."

Adnan Mazarei, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) in Washington, told Al Jazeera: "This is going to increase oil production once things normalize in the strait by about 2 million barrels per day, which will pull down some pricing pressure depending on how demand does compared to global prices."

The timing of this rift coincides with the UAE's formal withdrawal from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which officially took effect last Friday. Experts believe the move, long rumored but surprising in its timing, is aimed at further aligning Abu Dhabi's oil policies with US interests.

The UAE withdrawal comes as the world clamors for new oil supplies. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's oil and gas transits, remains blocked amid the US-Israel war on Iran, sending oil prices soaring.

Political observers believe the UAE's OPEC exit, perceived as beneficial to the US and detrimental to Saudi-Emirati oil coordination, is a major factor fueling the rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Some analysts also point to Abu Dhabi's normalization with Israel as another source of tension with the more cautious Saudi leadership. A notable shift in geopolitical dynamics has prompted the United Arab Emirates to perceive a closer alignment with Israel compared to Saudi Arabia. This evolving relationship has fostered a sense of alliance between the UAE and Tel Aviv, marking a significant development in regional politics. This inclination towards Israel reflects a divergence in foreign policy approaches between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as the former actively cultivates stronger ties with Tel Aviv, solidifying their position as allies in the region.

In this regard, Israel’s Channel 12 reported that there is no longer any doubt that the United Arab Emirates is Israel’s closest Arab partner today. The report stated that the UAE has decided to expand its alliance with Israel to include cooperation in military operations. It added that the UAE is no longer making any efforts to hide its relations and has deliberately decided to deepen its strategic alliance with Israel.

US officials remain increasingly concerned that Washington's two key Arab allies may emerge from the war more hostile toward one another than ever before, at a time when the entire region is still reeling from the conflict with Iran. The combination of strategic divergence, energy competition, and differing approaches to regional alliances has created a volatile mix that could reshape Persian Gulf politics for years to come.