By Hanif Ghaffari

From Political Deadlock in Germany to Security Crisis in Europe

December 27, 2017

TEHRAN _ While the outcome of the two Christian Democrats and Social Democrats' negotiations for a major coalition in Berlin is still unclear, the leader of the German Liberal Democratic Party, in controversial statements, has again essentially questioned the presence of Angela Merkel at the top of the country's governing equations.

Liberal Democrat leader Christian Lindner has said he is ready to begin re-negotiations with the three parties of Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, and the Green Party in case of the rerun of elections. Lindner, of course, has emphasized that the main prerequisite for his party to take part in the talks is the removal of Merkel as the German Chancellor! The leader of the Liberal Democrat Party has emphasized:

"We want to be part of a modernization project. It is possible to restart negotiations for the formation of the Jamaica coalition, but only with the presence of new personalities, and maybe among the Christian Democrats, there are other electoral programs and other decision makers who will allow reassessment of the situation."
Lindner's recent remarks suggest that the country will once again face political impasse in the event of rerun of elections in Germany. Angela Merkel insists on being in power for the fourth time as the Chancellor of Germany. This has been confronted with the opposition of the Liberal Democrats (as one of the sides of the Jamaica coalition).

Another point is that Lindner's recent remarks will naturally lead to Angela Merkel and the Christian Democrat's greater effort for forming a coalition with the Social Democrats. That's because the failure of negotiations and not being able to form a coalition government with the Social Democrats, would provide a ground for Merkel's removal of her post. On the other hand, Lindner's recent remarks increased Social Democrats maneuver capability in coalition talks with Christian Democrats and Merkel. Now, people like "Sigmar Gabriel" and "Martin Schulz" can get more advantages of Merkel.

 It should be noted that German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel, recently warned about the consequences of the formation of a minimal government in the country. A "minimal government" is set up if Merkel's negotiations with the Social Democrats come to a standstill, while Merkel wouldn't intend to rerun the elections in her country. In this case, negotiations would begin between Christian parties and the Green Party to form a coalition government. The minimal government, as its name implies, doesn't have the support of the majority of parliament, and this makes it twice as vulnerable.

The fact is that recent statements by Liberal Democrat leader Christian Lindner on re-holding of elections in this country was a warning for the Democratic Party of Germany. Merkel will now make every effort to form a coalition government with the Social Democrats. However, there is still no guarantee of the full success of the talks. Interestingly, the Liberal Democrat Party was one of the partners of the Christian Democratic Party and the German Chancellor before that. But now this party has become the main opponent of Angela Merkel. And this is the one thing that isn't easy for the Social Democrat leaders to accept.

The Shadow of Security Crisis over Europe
With the start of the New Year celebrations in the European countries, most EU countries security forces are in a state of stand-by. This is while the security warnings have increased in some European countries in recent months. Though Europe has been less targeted by terrorist attacks of groups such as ISIS in 2017, it still remains a potential security risk in countries such as France and Germany.

Meanwhile, the French government has announced the deployment of some 100,000 security forces to protect citizens from potential terrorist attacks. It should be noted that according to the new law on countering terrorism in France, the country's police powers have increased to deal with security threats. German officials have also warned explicitly about the possibility of terrorist attacks in various parts of the country. The possible return of Takfiri citizens from Syria and Iraq to the European countries has exacerbated this trend. In addition, the risk of far-right extremists in various European countries and the instigation of their supporters (usually racist groups) can lead to widespread security crises in Europe.

These warnings show that the "security crisis" continues to be a critical and continuous crisis in the equations of the United Europe. The crisis could be intensified during the coming year (2018). In other words, the security crisis is a matter that Europe is heavily touched by today. Common security policies in Europe haven't helped to improve the security situation on the European frontiers. In recent years, common European security management has been challenged by nationalist groups on many occasions. "Security" as the minimum requirement of European citizens has become a difficult puzzle these days; a puzzle which few have the power to analyze it. Meanwhile, current and past security policies implied in the European countries have themselves contributed to the formation of the security crisis.


The indifference of the European security services to the strengthening of racist and anti-immigration groups (such as the Pegida movement in Germany), and subsequently the support of these services of the Takfiri currents in the West Asian region, has led to the present situation in Europe. It should not be forgotten that the European security institutions in the years prior to the formation of ISIS, didn't care forthe intellectual activities or the propaganda of the Saudi-backed Takfiri groups inside their territory. On the other hand, since 2013 (since the formation of ISIS), arms support by countries such as Britain, France and Germany of Saudi Arabia, which is the main supporter of terrorist groups in the region, has played an important role in the survival of terrorist groups in Syria and Iraq.

However, with the destruction of the ISIS caliphate in Syria and Iraq and the return of ISIS members to Europe, this security crisis is felt even more than before. At any rate, the West faces a heterogeneous structure of security crises that it contributed to its creation.

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