TEHRAN — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Iran’s economy will reach a gross domestic product of $1.746 trillion in 2025 based on purchasing power parity, an increase of $51 billion compared to the previous year. However, the Fund expects the country’s GDP per capita, also based on PPP, to decline slightly from $17,222 in 2024 to $17,103 this year.

The IMF estimates Iran’s GDP at current prices will fall from $401 billion in 2024 to $341 billion in 2025, marking a $60 billion decrease. It also forecasts a significant slowdown in real economic growth, with a rate of just 0.3 percent this year, down from 3.4 percent in 2024.

According to the report, inflation is expected to rise from 32.6 percent in 2024 to 43.3 percent in 2025. The volume of exports of goods and services, which expanded by 4.6 percent last year, is projected to shrink by 5 percent. Imports, which grew by 10.6 percent in 2024, are forecast to contract by 9.6 percent this year.

Despite these trends, Iran is expected to maintain a positive current account balance of $3 billion in 2025. This reflects a decline of $7.9 billion from the $10.9 billion surplus recorded in 2024 but indicates the country will continue to generate more income from abroad than it spends.

The IMF also anticipates a rise in the unemployment rate, from 7.7 percent in 2024 to 9.5 percent in 2025. Government revenues are expected to decline slightly from 10.6 percent of GDP to 9.5 percent, while expenditures are projected to increase marginally from 14.7 percent to 14.9 percent of GDP. As a result, gross government debt is forecast to rise from 36.8 percent of GDP to 39.9 percent this year.

Total investment is projected to remain stable at 39 percent of GDP, unchanged from the previous year.

EF/MA