TEHRAN- As the US-Iran conflict enters its third month, a heated clash on Capitol Hill has revealed a staggering discrepancy between the Pentagon’s official figures and the projected economic reality of the war, potentially reaching $1 trillion.

In a tense hearing before the House Armed Services Committee, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth found himself under sharp fire from lawmakers who accuse the administration of drastically underestimating the financial burden of the ongoing war with Iran.

A recent investigation by Al Jazeera says that Pentagon officials, including acting comptroller Jay Hurst, testified that the total cost of "Operation Epic Fury" currently stands at approximately $25 billion. Hurst explained that this sum largely reflects the direct costs of munitions expended and equipment maintenance over the past two months.

However, the hearing quickly devolved into a bitter confrontation when Democratic leaders and economists rejected that figure as dangerously misleading. Rep. Ro Khanna confronted Hegseth, arguing that while the Pentagon counts missiles, the administration is ignoring the macroeconomic bleeding. "Do you know how much it will cost Americans in terms of their increased cost in gas and food?" Khanna asked, estimating the real hit to the U.S. economy could reach $631 billion—or roughly $5,000 per household.

Economics asymmetric warfare 

The disparity in costs is starkly illustrated by the daily exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz. Reports indicate that the U.S. has fired Patriot missiles costing $4 million each to intercept Iranian Shahed drones worth as little as $50,000.

Furthermore, the administration has requested a $1.5 trillion defense budget for the next fiscal year—a 42 percent increase marking the largest military spending expansion since World War II. Beyond the bombs, Harvard economist Linda Bilmes—renowned for accurately predicting the $3 trillion cost of the Iraq War—warns that the long-term obligations for veterans’ care and depleted weapons restocking will push the final bill for the Iran war past $1 trillion.

Global fallout: World Bank warns of development in reverse 

Beyond Washington’s budget battles, the global economy is buckling under the weight of the conflict. According to a recent World Bank report, the war has driven global commodity prices up by an average of 16% in 2026. The World Bank’s Chief Economist, Indermit Gill, warned that the shock spreads in "cumulative waves": first energy, then food, then generalized inflation. The bank specifically warned that fertilizer prices are set to rise 31%, which threatens to push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity worldwide if the Strait remains closed.

Strategic mission creep and domestic fallout 

The United States is currently trapped in a strategic "no-war, no-peace" equilibrium. Analysts note that stockpiles of precision-guided munitions like Tomahawk missiles, crucial for a potential peer conflict, have been significantly depleted and may take up to four years to replenish. At home, with gas prices hitting $4.23 a gallon and a Reuters/Ipsos poll showing only 22% approval of Trump’s cost-of-living management, the war has transformed from a foreign intervention into a severe domestic political liability ahead of the midterms.