Turkey-U.S. pact: Goals and consequences

July 30, 2015 - 0:0

The Turkish Parliament rejected military cooperation with the United States in war on Iraq in 2003, however in a major policy shift Turkey has agreed to allow the U.S. to use the key Incirlik Air Base to launch airstrikes against Daesh, also called ISIL, and agreed on the outlines of a plan to rout the extremists from a stretch of Syrian territory along the Turkish border.


Talks were held in July between John Ellen, Barack Obama’s special representative, with high-ranking Turkish military officials and deputy foreign minister. The talks lasted one week where the sides reached agreement on some points and then Obama and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyep Erdogan phone calls facilitated the agreement.

The agreement comes at a time of interim prime minister and a provisional government in Turkey.

What is important is that the deal relates to the fight against terrorism, even though Washington’s view on the agreement differs with that of Turkey, especially in case of Kurds. However, Turkey is afraid of being Pakistanized.

------ What the U.S. is pursuing

According to the agreement, the U.S. and other members of the anti-Daesh coalition will use the Incirlik base. Turkey has not yet made deal with the other members of anti-ISIL coalition.

The base, 8 kilometers east of Adana, gives the U.S. a wider scope of action.
In regard to foreign forces’ access to the Incirlik base against ISIL, Erdogan said, “They will use [it] within defined framework and under certain circumstances.”

Bulent Arinc has said that it will not be revealed in full how the base will be used.

Turkey argues it has prevented many from joining the terrorist groups in Syria. However, there is a question why Turkey has allowed thousands from the West and other parts of the world to join extremists in Syria.

In Ankara, the Haji Bairam district was one of the main spots used by ISIL to recruit foreign forces. Reportedly the area was not only one of the main centers for the recruitment of forces to Syria and Iraq it was also an important center from which to ISIL launched its media campaign, though the center has been greatly damaged.

Reports say ISIL forces arrested in the area are people who had fought for months in Iraq and Syria and then come to Turkey and settled in Ankara. It is said Turkish nationals sympathizing with ISIL have been helping them settle there.

To secure 910-kilometer-long borders with Syria by launching watch towers and using hot-air balloons, etc., Turkey is seeking more financial resources from the West.

Arinc has said there is an agreement between Turkey and the U.S. on such operations and the government is trying to make them practical.

Turkey had initially announced that its first objective was to overthrow the Syrian government. Now objectives have shifted place and first fight against ISIL is mentioned. Kerry has said changes have been made to what Turkey was preparing to do. Kerry said U.S. plans have also undergone some changes.

------ Creating safe zone in northern Syria

Turkey’s objective is to move Kurds away from the east of Euphrates. The country has announced that it is its red line if Democratic Union Party fighters get close to Turkish borders. It seems the U.S. has agreed if anything happens it will help Turkey. The safe zone starts from the Euphrates and extends 110 kilometers to the west. This zone will be 60 kilometers inside Syria, like the one in northern Iraq from 1999 to 2003.

This zone will nest Syrian refugees in Turkey, eliminating an economic burden on Turkey. Speaking to reporters before his three-day visit to China, Erdogan said launching the zone will be the first step in fighting ISIL.

There are some elements that pose threats to Turkish security and that insecure places in Syria have to be cleared of dangerous elements, he had added.

The number of Syrian refugees is 1.7 million.

The safe zone will have other uses as well, such as supporting moderate opponents, giving them aerial support, and training them and providing arms to them.

---- Objectives

Turkey and the U.S. follow their own goals in the region. The U.S. and other Western countries are worried about the return of extremists to their countries to carry out terrorist acts. Also, Turkey’s cooperation with the U.S. and NATO will strengthen Turkey’s Western bonds.

Turkey has been seeking international security for itself. But through fighting ISIL and PKK, Ankara also seeks to run free of domestic and international charges about its support for ISIL, prevent the progress of Kurds in Syria, and create buffer zone.

The timing for Turkey’s operations is also meaningful, probably having relations with early elections if a coalition government is not formed. It is even likely to name a party as illegal.

Continuing cooperation with the U.S. can lead to the end of the Dolmabahçe talks with Kurds and regional unrest. However, If a war breaks out between the Turkish government and Kurds a Libyan model may be repeated in Turkey, which in that case Turkish infrastructure will be likely targeted.