By Ali Azimi

Trump no longer has hope for Washington!

June 2, 2019

After the victory in the 2016 presidential election, the president of the United States tried to bring some of the country's constituencies into the presidential election in 2020. Trump and his entourage believed that their victory in some blue states (Democrats) , Could ensure the victory of the President of the United States in the upcoming presidential election. But Trump's calculations were wrong!

Not only Trump is not hoping for victory in these states, but also fearing loss of victory in some key states!

For example,  Hillary Clinton carried Washington by a half-million votes in 2016, a margin almost entirely built in populous King County. In a new survey, done for the Northwest Progressive Institute, PPP found that 35% of Washington voters approve the performance of our 45th president, while 61% give Trump a thumbs-down. Just 4% are unsure.

If the election were held today, 34% would vote for Trump while 59% would vote for his Democratic opponent. Another 7% are not sure. The President's base was -- you guessed it -- 35% a year ago.

Public Policy Polling has Democratic roots, but was famous for delivering bad news on Obama approval ratings, and predicting the "shellacking" (Obama's word) received by the Dems in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections. The PPP poll in Washington was done for a liberal net-roots organization.

A poll is a snapshot in time, and presidents can rebound from first term lows. Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Obama all trailed in trial heats during the second and third years of their administrations

With Trump, however, there has been a narrow range. He has -- nationally -- a base of support of 40-42%. During periods of low tweets and high economic growth, he has climbed to the mid-40s. The lowest Trump has fallen is 39%.

The President rallies his base in states where it is larger, particularly the "Rust Belt" states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania that were keys to his 2016 victory.

Washington hasn't been a target since George W. Bush made a serious effort here in 2000. Ronald Reagan, in 1984, was the last Republican presidential candidate to carry the Evergreen State.

The PPP figures pose a challenge to Republicans in key 2020 races in this state. Statewide candidates will need to substantially surpass the base Trump vote -- without making it mad -- if they hope to win.

The Republicans' bid to recapture the 8th Congressional District, lost in 2018 after 38 years of Republican House members, will be complicated by its big King County vote. King County elected rookie Democratic U.S. Rep. Kim Schrier.

"Trump's presence on the ballot next year could be like an anvil that drags the entire ticket," said Andrew Villeneuve of Northwest Progressive Institute.

The Republicans hold three of the state's 10 U.S. House seats, and the Secretary of State's and State Treasurer offices. State Sen. Phil Fortunato, an outspoken Republican conservative, is looking at a race for Governor.

In other hands, Trump's approval rating among registered voters stands at 44 percent, while a majority of voters, 56 percent, say they disapprove of the job he is doing, a new Hill-HarrisX survey found.

The May 24-25 poll showed Trump's approval rating unchanged from the previous May 13-14 survey. Overall, Trump's approval rating is down slightly from April Hill-HarrisX surveys, which had the president at 46 percent approval.

The primary reason for the shift appears to be a decline in support for Trump among self-described political independents. In the latest survey, the president received the support of 35 percent of independents, down from the 43 percent who supported him in the previous May 13-14 survey and from his most recent high of 50 percent in early February.

Hill-HarrisX research has also shown a recent decline in respondents who "somewhat approve" of Trump. In the May 24-25 survey, 20 percent of voters said this, down from 24 percent who said the same in the April 14 poll.

"It's not enough, he has to have some sort of play to those who consider themselves independents here," Republican pollster BJ Martino told Hill.TV on Wednesday, adding that Trump should start emphasizing the nation's economy more than other issues.

The lower numbers for the president come amid ongoing clashes with congressional Democrats, with the White House refusing to turn over subpoenaed documents to House Democrats and Trump seeking to put pressure on lawmakers to end oversight inquiries into the administration and his personal finances.

Trump's rating among registered Republican voters remains high in the latest poll, with 83 percent saying they like his job performance. Similarly, the number of respondents who "strongly approve" of the president has remained at about 24 percent in recent months, according to the poll.

In less-populated areas, Trump continues to receive majority support. Fifty-four percent of respondents said they approved of his job performance, higher than the 43 percent of suburban residents and 37 percent of urban residents who agreed.

The president continued to receive low marks from Democratic respondents, only 17 percent of whom said they liked how he is doing his official duties.

The latest Hill-HarrisX survey was conducted online from a statistically representative panel of 1,001 registered voters with a 95 percent confidence level and a 3.1 percent sampling margin of error.

The President of the United States has been working hard to win the next presidential election these days!  Trump's recently announced immigration proposal is designed to attract independents for 2020, Republican pollster B.J. Martino said in an interview that aired Wednesday on Hill.TV. 

"I think this immigration proposal, as I said, is a campaign document," Martino, a partner at the Tarrance Group, told Hill.TV's Jamal Simmons on "What America's Thinking."

"They are proposing keeping the level of immigration overall the same, which to the president's base and some of those on the anti-immigration side wanted to see that number come down, at least in a nominal way. And they refused to in this document," he said.

"The things that they put forward here they know are unacceptable to the left, and to the House," Martino added. "Nothing is going to get out that looks like this president's bill, but he's talking to those independent voters here saying, 'We need to have a higher educated immigrant with more job skills who can integrate into this new modern new economy that we have.'"

Trump rolled out what he called a merit-based immigration plan earlier this month. The proposal favors highly skilled workers over migrants with family members living in the U.S.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said the plan would be "dead on arrival" in the Democratic-controlled House, adding that the plan was “not a remotely serious proposal."
 

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