By Saeed Sobhani

Will UK leave the European Union this year?

June 18, 2019

The story of Britain's departure from the European Union has become a complex puzzle for European analysts. On the other hand, there are secret and obvious attempts to hold a referendum on the withdrawal of Britain from Europe. However, some analysts believe that, if Boris Johnson is at the head of the British political and administrative equations, this issue will come about (British withdrawal from Europe). Brexit has long been a foggy point in the security, political, social, and economic equations in Britain and the United Europe.

Conflicts and debates over Brexit have increased in the UK, and opponents of Britain's exit from the European Union are about to hold a referendum again.

Two years has passed since the referendum was hold over the Brexit, which ended up in the victory of the proponents of the UK exit from the EU. But the details of this departure remains ambiguous among the British authorities, and this ambiguity seems to be intensified in 2019. Here, we will review the latest reports and news on the Brexit:

Johnson's rivals vie to offer their visions for post-Brexit Britain

As Guardian reported, The five men vying to take on Boris Johnson in the Conservative leadership race made a slew of promises to tackle illiteracy, fix the broken social care system and reunify Britain after Brexit as they clashed in the first televised debate.Johnson was attacked by the foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, for failing to appear in Sunday night’s debate, at which he was represented by an empty lectern. “If his team won’t allow him out to debate with five pretty friendly colleagues, how is he going to cope with 27 EU countries? He should be here to answer that very question,” said Hunt.

Much of the leadership contest so far has been dominated by the issue of Brexit, which produced some of the strongest clashes in the Channel 4 debate. But nine years after the Conservatives came to power in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, all five men also used the platform to set out their priorities for renewing their country and their party.

Hunt, who was health secretary for six years, said fixing Britain’s broken social care system was “unfinished business”, and promised to tackle what he called the “national blind spot” of illiteracy, saying: “A quarter of primary school leavers are unable to read or write properly.”

Rory Stewart, who came seventh in the first round of voting last week, also highlighted the state of social care. “It’s a real disgrace: it’s the unfinished revolution of our society,” the international development secretary said. “It is that on which our civilisation should be tested – and it is that which I would make my central priority.”Michael Gove said he wanted to do more for children in care, and raised concerns about young people leaving university burdened with debt, suggesting the student loans system should be “looked at”.

“It seems to me tragic that when I think of the next generation of children, that they will leave university with debt, they will find it more difficult to have a home of their own; it seems as though their horizons are narrowing just as the world is opening up,” the environment secretary said. And in an echo of Tony Blair’s “tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime” catchphrase, Gove suggested: “Our approach to knife crime should not just be about law and order – it should be about love and hope.

Sajid Javid praised public services, saying: “Like 90% of the population, I relied on public services to get me where I am.” The home secretary also called for more investment in education. Dominic Raab said he would boost degree-level apprenticeships and cut taxes for the lowest-paid.

And despite the public pleas of the chancellor, Philip Hammond, for candidates not to abandon the Tories’ reputation for fiscal prudence, no one mentioned tackling the deficit. Raab was repeatedly challenged by all four of his rivals for refusing to rule out suspending parliament if he considered it necessary to press ahead with a no-deal Brexit – something he said must be kept on the table. “The minute we telegraph to the EU that we’re not willing to walk away at the end of October, come what may, we lose the best shot at a deal,” the former Brexit secretary said.

But Javid told him: “You don’t deliver democracy by trashing democracy – we’re not choosing a dictator, we’re choosing a PM.” And Hunt said the idea was a “fundamental misreading of what parliament stands for, and what the people in this country would accept”.

Javid, who will need to win over extra support if he is to remain in the race after Tuesday’s second round of voting, painted himself as a fresh face from a different background who could communicate better with non-Tory voters. “It’s important to have someone that can unite people – and my own background, my life experience is very different from Conservative leaders of the past,” he said. “I’m not from central casting.”

Stewart, whose quixotic campaign has involved walking around Britain meeting the public, received a warm response from the studio audience of floating voters, including when he complained that the contest has become a “competition of machismo” over Brexit.He also took a swipe at Johnson by saying of his rivals in the studio: “I hope it’s one of us who becomes prime minister.”And after the debate, he won the backing of business minister Margot James, who had previously supported Matt Hancock. She described him as “energetic, determined and embracing the centre ground”.

Stewart claimed he was the candidate who could win over backers of other parties at a future general election.“I’m not ashamed of the fact that Labour and Lib Dem voters say they would vote for me,” he said. “I think that’s something to be proud of, and I think we need to work to listen to each other, and above all to bring this country together.”One member of the audience asked the candidates about their greatest weakness. Raab called himself a “restless soul”, Javid said he was too stubborn, and Gove that he was too impatient.

Johnson, who is the overwhelming frontrunner, had declined an invitation to take part in the debate and is not expected to join hustings with Westminster journalists on Monday either. But he will join a BBC debate on Tuesday evening, after the second round of voting, when the field will have been slimmed down.The least popular candidate will be eliminated after Tuesday’s ballot among MPs – as will any contender who does not meet a threshold of 33 supporters, set by the backbench 1922 Committee.

Only Johnson, Hunt and Gove achieved that target last week. Others have spent the weekend trying to win over erstwhile supporters of Hancock, who withdrew after scoring 20 votes in the first round. Hancock himself, who pitched himself as the right candidate to “turn the page” on Brexit, announced on Sunday night that he was backing Johnson after holding meetings with all the other candidates on Friday and Saturday. Writing in the Times, Hancock said he felt Johnson had the best chance of uniting the party and the country and would lead as a one-nation prime minister because “that’s how he ran London – consistently – for eight years”. He added: “I have repeatedly argued for a strategy of defeating the danger of [Nigel] Farage by delivering Brexit and defeating the danger of [Jeremy] Corbyn by dominating the centre ground thereafter. That is Boris’s plan and I wholeheartedly endorse it.”

Some moderate Tory MPs had hoped for a “stop Johnson dream ticket”, but talks on joining forces foundered. “Rory, Michael, Saj, and Matt all agreed they should band together – but each of them thought it was him that people should unite around,” said one senior Tory. Further rounds of voting will be held on Wednesday – and on Thursday, if necessary – to weed the field down to just two men, whose names will then go forward to Conservative party members. The result will be announced in the week beginning 21 July.

Boris Johnson might be exactly the Brexit prime minister Brussels needs

Also, Luke McGee wrote in CNN that The feared chaos of a no-deal Brexit is suddenly a lot more likely. At least, that's how things seem as week one of the battle to replace Theresa May as the UK's prime minister comes to an end. But some in Brussels, the de facto capital of the European Union, are not so sure things are all that bad. Boris Johnson, the frontrunner in the contest to lead the governing Conservative party, launched his campaign on Wednesday. And in his pitch to the party faithful, he committed to taking the UK out of the EU on October 31, no matter if a deal is in place with Europe or not.

In Brussels, there's a grudging acceptance that the man who led the Brexit campaign and who talks openly about leaving without a deal is who they'll now have to negotiate with. If the EU is taken at its word, the deal that Theresa May struck with Brussels last year remains the only deal on the table. Therefore, Johnson's claim that he will reopen negotiations and secure changes to the Withdrawal Agreement (the formal name for May's deal) are based more on hope than fact.

And taken at his word, if Johnson cannot secure these changes then the UK will simply crash out at the end of October -- the next Brexit deadline. So why are things not all that bad? Over two years, EU officials watched the UK rub out red line after red line. Talking a big game on Brexit from London is easy. But when it's your neck on the line, things look somewhat different.

The quiet suspicion among some EU types is that when the crunch comes, Johnson's political ambition might kick in as the deadline looms. "When it comes down to it, does Boris, a man who has spent his entire career getting ready for this moment, want to be the shortest-serving prime minister in history? Because that's what will happen if he drags the UK off a cliff and there are no avocados in the shops and no medicine in hospitals," said one EU source with direct knowledge of private conversations taking place between EU officials.

There might have been some clues in Johnson's campaign launch speech. While he committed to leaving the EU at the next deadline and under no circumstances requesting a further extension, he also said unequivocally that a no-deal Brexit was not what he wanted. Tie these threads together, and it suddenly seems plausible that Johnson could end up trying to sell Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement to lawmakers in London, come autumn.

How might this work? The Brexit deal, as it's commonly known, consists of two parts. First, the Withdrawal Agreement, which allows the UK to leave with no immediate consequences. Second, the Political Declaration, which outlines the intentions of both sides as they enter negotiations about the future relationship.

The Withdrawal Agreement contains a section called the Northern Ireland backstop, which, without getting into too much detail, is designed to prevent the return of border infrastructure at the frontier between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. It's been the key sticking point for Conservative Brexiteers, as it has no end point, and they say it effectively ties the UK to remain in the EU in all but name.

Johnson claims he can change the backstop; the EU says he can't. But he might be able to get further commitments in the Political Declaration that he could present as a huge victory to lawmakers in the UK. Why would Johnson triumph where May failed? Two reasons.
First, he is far more popular among Conservatives than May. One of the biggest concerns Brexiteers had was May being in charge of the second round of talks, given the concessions she made in round one. These were her concessions, not Johnson's. And they are more likely to trust him to hold a hard line in round two.

Second, it cannot be overstated exactly how sick the EU is of Brexit. European diplomatic sources say that there is increasing support among the other 27 EU member states for Emmanuel Macron's view that a no-deal outcome isn't as bad as the ongoing uncertainty. They want Brexit over and done with, but don't want to throw Ireland, the country that a no deal would most affect other than the UK, under the bus.

This means that a few concessions to help the man they loathe get a deal over the line and finally be shot of this mess might not be the worst price to pay. Should this happen, the politics of it would be very messy. Johnson, the darling of the Brexiteers, will try forcing a deal through parliament that he effectively quit May's government over. And if he fails to get a new deal approved, then it comes back to no deal or requesting a further extension.

All three outcomes -- deal, extension, no deal -- could spell the end of a Johnson premiership merely months after the 54-year-old finally achieves his dream of calling 10 Downing Street home. But this kind of brinkmanship, high-risk politics has defined the Brexit crisis ever since the Brexit vote, three years ago this month. There's no reason that should change now.

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