By Saeed Sobhani

Trump falls near

September 6, 2019

Public and state polls in the United States show that American citizens' support for President Donald Trump has fallen sharply. Obviously, if the presidential election is held in such a situation, Trump will not stand a chance of winning the race and will certainly lose. Trump is not doing well in state polls, especially in key states like Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. There is not even a guarantee that Trump will win in Texas!

Trump approval hits new low among Virginians in Roanoke College poll

Washington Post reported that Virginians’ dislike of President Trump is growing, according to a new statewide poll that suggests the head winds Republicans could face in crucial legislative elections this fall.

A Roanoke College poll released Monday found that more than half of potential Virginia voters — 53 percent — said they disapproved of Trump’s performance, while 27 percent said they approved. That is a new low for Trump in the Roanoke poll, down from a peak approval rating of 38 percent of Virginia adults overall when the college polled in February.

The president has been a drag on Republicans in statewide elections since 2016. This year is especially significant because all 140 seats in the General Assembly are on the Nov. 5 ballot. Democrats hope to take control of the legislature, with Republicans defending razor-thin majorities of 20 to 19 in the Senate and 51 to 48 in the House of Delegates, with one vacancy in each chamber.

The president’s weak approval ratings didn’t stop the state’s top Republicans from heartily welcoming him to historic Jamestown last month, where he gave an address to mark the 400th anniversary of the birth of representative democracy. Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax was the only high-ranking Democrat on the dais at the event, which was boycotted by the Legislative Black Caucus and some Democratic lawmakers.

The poll suggests that Democrats are not under a similar cloud from their own tainted party leadership. Gov. Ralph Northam, who faced a scandal in February over a racist photo from his 1984 medical school yearbook, is not nearly as toxic as Trump: Northam scored 37 percent approval versus 29 percent disapproval among possible voters in the Roanoke College poll.

Northam’s approval rating is similar to the findings of a Virginia Commonwealth University poll in June, which showed that 37 percent approved of his performance while 28 percent disapproved.

The Roanoke College poll found that Democrats had a slight edge over Republicans — 36 percent to 31 percent — when potential voters were asked which party should control the state Senate, and a more significant advantage in the House, at 38 percent to 30 percent.

“While we are more than two months from the elections and generic ballots have limited utility, one would prefer their party to be ahead,” poll director Harry Wilson said in a news release. He added that while Trump’s low approval could help Democrats, “Republicans can benefit from lower turnout, which is typical in Virginia midterm elections.”

The poll asked respondents to rate issues in terms of importance and found that the economy came out on top with an average rating of about 9 on a 10-point scale, with 10 being most important. Education and health care were close behind.

The more inflammatory topics that each side has emphasized in recent months were not rated quite as high: Gun control scored about 8, and abortion policy was about 7.5.

The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College conducted the poll of 556 potential Virginia voters between Aug. 11 and Aug. 19. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Six polls and more than 6,000 interviews show Trump's approval dropping

Also CNN reported that A new national CNN/SSRS poll finds that President Donald Trump's approval rating stands at 40%. His disapproval rating is 54%.

His approval rating is down from late June when it was 43%. His disapproval rating is slightly up from 52% in late June.

What's the point: Over the last month and a half, a lot has happened in our national dialogue. Trump went after four congresswomen of color. Then he turned his sights on Maryland Rep. Elijah Cummings, who is black. More recently, there were the shootings in El Paso, Texas, and Dayton, Ohio. And fears are growing over a potential economic slowdown.

All together, it seems like recent news cycles are causing a downturn in the President's fortunes. His approval rating does seem to be sliding, which is troublesome news heading into 2020.

Presidents' approval ratings have been highly correlated with their re-election margin. In the midterm elections, Trump's approval rating lined up nearly perfectly with his party's vote share in the House elections.

And while the shift in our CNN poll is not statistically significant given the margin of error of +/- 4 points, it's not the only poll to show that Trump's approval rating is down.

Take a look at these other probability-based polls that meet CNN's standards and were completed over the last two weeks.

AP-NORC puts the President's approval rating at 36%, down from 38%.

Fox News gave Trump a 43% approval rating, a decrease from 46%.

Gallup shows Trump's approval rating at 41%, down from 42% in late July and 44% in early July.

Monmouth University pegs Trump's approval rating at 40%, down from 41%.

NBC News/Wall Street Journal found Trump had an approval rating of 43% among all adults, a decrease of 2 points from 45% in July among registered voters and 1 point from 44% in their last poll that surveyed all adults in June.

None of these poll results individually are all that convincing that Trump's approval rating has declined. Together, however, they make a fairly strong case.

Adding in the CNN poll, Trump has an average decline of 2 points in his approval rating. That may not seem like a lot, but keep in mind these polls put together have a sample size of more than 6,000 people. The chances that all of these polls have Trump's approval down, even by a mere 2 points, is tiny.

Normally, a 2-point drop in a president's approval rating would not be a big deal. For this president, however, a 2-point movement is a bigger deal than usual.

Trump's approval rating has been unusually stable. Any sort of movement is noteworthy with him. According to Gallup, no president has had as narrow a range (35%-46%) of approval ratings than Trump. Trump's still within that range, though now more toward the middle than the upper part of that range as he had been earlier in the year.

Trump needs to be able to break out of the narrow range in order to make himself a favorite for reelection. No president has won an additional term with an approval rating as low as Trump's is currently.

The further Trump's approval rating strays from his disapproval rating, the harder he makes it for himself to win in 2020.

In other hand,Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden top the Democratic field for president in 2020, with no clear leader, according to a Monmouth University poll released Monday.

The three candidates are bunched together, each receiving about the same amount of support (Sanders 20%, Warren 20% and Biden 19%) from registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters.

They're followed by California Sen. Kamala Harris (8%), New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (4%), South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (4%), businessman Andrew Yang (3%), former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Juli?n Castro (2%), former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (2%) and author Marianne Williamson (2%). All other candidates received 1% or less in the poll.

Since Monmouth's June poll, Sanders and Warren have gained slightly (up 6 and 5 percentage points), while Biden has lost significant support (down 13 points).

A CNN poll conducted by SSRS, out last week, found Biden with 29% support, while Sanders and Warren were lower (15% and 14%, respectively).

The results don't impact who has qualified for the debates in September, with the Wednesday deadline fast approaching. This is Williamson's first poll hitting 2%, giving her one debate qualifying poll. Williamson, who has said she has met the donor threshold, would need three more polls to qualify.

Biden's decline comes mostly from registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters who consider themselves moderate or conservative, down 18 points since June. Meanwhile, Sanders and Warren have gained 10 percentage points each among those voters, an area that isn't considered strong for either of the very liberal candidates.

Biden also lost support among those who don't have a college degree (down 17 points) and those under the age of 50 (down 15 points).

Biden, Sanders and Warren all have similar favorable ratings -- around two-thirds of registered Democrats and leaners have a positive opinion of the candidates, but Warren has a much lower unfavorable rating than the other two (13% find the Massachusetts senator unfavorable, compared to a 25% for Biden and 24% for Sanders).

Additionally, Warren's favorability has gone up slightly since May, while Sanders has remained steady and Biden has slipped.

On the subject of health care, more than half (58%) of Democratic voters say it's very important that they nominate someone who supports "Medicare for All," and another half (53%) want to allow people to either opt in to Medicare or keep their private coverage over getting rid of all private insurance (22%).

The Monmouth University Poll of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters was conducted by telephone August 16 through 20 among a random sample of 800 adults in the United States. Results in this release are based on 298 registered voters who identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, which has a +/- 5.7 percentage point sampling margin of error.


 

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