By Charles Ortel

U.S. election and the challenge of potential voters

October 6, 2020 - 10:45

During 2020, there is heightened potential for interference many ways, but at core Americans across the political spectrum are free to register and to vote in secret, meaning the outcome, once tallied should reflect the will of a broad swath of eligible voters.

Concerning the presidential contest, voters have a clear choice between an independent businessperson who has delivered remarkable results in face of determined opposition, versus an old and tired politician who can fairly boast of little.

In 2016, Donald Trump had no political experience but he beat Hillary Clinton whose political resume dated back decades. I think she lost because she ran a horrible campaign, insulting undecided, and opting not to visit key swing states in final days. Joe Biden so far has managed to run his campaign, such as it may be, worse than Hillary Clinton did. I believe today that you may see a Trump landslide on and after 3 November 2020.

Voters have come to believe that politicians can only hope to be effective if they ally with either the Democrat or Republican parties. This could easily change in consequence of the 2020 election. One might find a new hard left Progressive Party form, but I doubt it would attract more than a 15 to 20% share nationwide.

Though extreme left-leaning views resonate in academia and in mainstream media they fail to convince the overwhelming majority of Americans who do try to engage on hard facts.

Though you might think otherwise reading and watching the news, America is the most prosperous nation on earth, and offers a wide array of opportunities to all who wish to abide by our laws, nurture their talents and then offer goods or services to the market, or work in the public sector. 

Perhaps many potential voters are not much interested in politics or in voting. In addition, many parts of the nation lean heavily either Republican or Democrat. This is particularly true in many large cities, where you find one party rule that is quite tough to change. So, disgruntled residents move out, rather than waste time trying to make changes.

In the past money mattered because without money you could not excite voters enough to express their views at the polls. In those years, political parties were more relevant, because independent politicians could not move the machinery of government to act and to change. This has changed given ubiquitous social media, so the great unknown in 2020 is the mix of actual voters on Election Day.

I suspect that progressive Democrats will not rally and come out for Biden, and that moderate Democrats, Republicans and a much larger pool of independents will surge for Trump, and for down-ticket Republicans.

AIPAC is an influential lobbying group, just as many others are of different religious, ethnic, and issue-minded groups. Historically, AIPAC has embraced Democrats, but given President Trump's historic accomplishments to date, I believe he will garner higher support than he did in 2016, and than other Republican presidents did in previous elections.

Charles Ortel is an investor and writer interested in economics, geo-politics, history, travel and just, lasting peace.

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