TEHRAN – Precipitation in the remaining months of the year until early December is forecast to be less than normal, according to the Meteorological Organization.

Summer average rainfall will be less than normal in provinces located north of the Alborz Mountains, on the southern slopes, and northwest. In some areas in the southeast, it tends to be above normal; in other parts, there will be low or no precipitation, ISNA reported.

As summer precipitations contribute to a relatively small proportion of the total annual rainfall, the current water year is projected to end (on September 22) with 40 percent less than normal rainfall.

Autumn rainfall is expected to start later than normal; in the northwest, it is forecast to be 60 percent less than normal, and in other parts, there will be some 50 to 60 percent reduction in precipitation.

In the first two months of the summer, the temperature in the southeast of the country and the Caspian coast will be normal; it will be 1-2 degrees higher than normal in the northwest, and 0.5 –1 degree higher in other regions, respectively.

From September 6 to October 7, average rainfall in most parts of the country will be the same as the normal long-term amount. In the northwest region, the temperature will rise by 1-2 degrees; in other regions, it will be 0.5 – 1 degree higher than normal.

From October 7 to November 6, average rainfall is estimated to be less than normal on the two sides of the Alborz Mountains, northwest, and provinces in the northern and southern Zagros. There will be no precipitation in other regions of the country.

The temperature will get 1-2 degrees higher in the northwest, northern, and middle Zagros; in the eastern part of the country, the average temperature will be normal, while in other parts, a temperature increase of 0.5–1 degree above normal is expected.

From November 6 to December 6, average rainfall tends to be less than normal in northern, middle, and southern Zagros, as well as provinces located east of Zagros.

Average temperature will be normal in some areas of the east, south-east, and Dasht-e Kavir (the central desert of Iran), 1–2 degrees above normal in the middle and southern Zagros, and 0.5–1 degree higher than normal in other parts.

The greatest decrease in precipitation is projected to occur in the second month of autumn, particularly in the middle Zagros. 

Over 250mm rain in previous water year

The previous water year (September 22, 2023 – September 22, 2024) came to an end with 252.7 mm of precipitation, showing a 19 percent increase compared to the year before.

The low precipitation at the beginning of the previous water year was worrisome, but the volume of precipitation improved with the passage of time.

Due to successive years of drought, the increase in rainfall amounts did not compensate for the water deficit in the country, some provinces are suffering from water shortage, IRNA reported.

A total of 10 provinces received less than normal rainfall.

According to the latest reports, the total amount of recorded rainfall in the previous water year (ended on September 23) amounted to 252.7 mm, which signifies a 19 percent increase compared to the 212.9 mm rain received in the water year before (September 2022 –September 2023).

Compared to the long-term figure, 248.7 mm, it shows a two percent increase.

MT/MG