TAIPEI The Aegis radar system, which tops Taiwan's weapons shopping list, poses a dilemma for the United States now caught up in a spy plane standoff with the island's main rival, China.

U.S. President George W. Bush is due to decide this month how to respond to the island's weapons wish list, but few Taiwan analysts would be surprised if he defers the decision on the Aegis.

Three months into his mandate, Bush faces his toughest diplomatic test as he scrambles to end the week-long standoff and bring home the 24 air crew of a U.S. spy plane, which landed on the southern island of Hainan after a midair collision with a Chinese fighter.

Some analysts say because of the standoff, Bush might defer his decision on the advanced radar system, which will give Taiwan's forces a big advantage against China's missile batteries.

But others say, on the contrary, the standoff is more likely to toughen the U.S. president's stand against China.

"The United States would fuel mistrust and misunderstanding if it agreed to sell the Aegis to Taiwan now," said Andrew Yang, secretary general of the Taipei-based Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, an independent think tank.

"Bush's top priority now is to fix U.S.-China relations and rebuild confidence," Yang said.

For Beijing, which has threatened to attack Taiwan if it declares independence or drags its feet on unification talks, the Aegis, known in Chinese as "The Shield of God", is bad news because it could help the island counter any Chinese missile attack -- the greatest threat to the island.

Beijing, Taipei Worried

"The Chinese are really worried. It's the missiles that give them the advantage," said Robert Karniol, Asia correspondent of Jane's Defense weekly.

Holmes Liao, a research fellow at the Taiwan Research Institute, added: "The Beijing leadership is making a lot of noise because it is worried Taiwan will be able to match its arms procurement process."

The Aegis -- named after the shield of the mythical Greek God Zeus -- would give Taiwan's Navy badly needed air defense capabilities as well as allow it to conduct joint warfare with the air force and move further out from the island.

But Beijing is not the only one who is worried.

Taipei, left out in the diplomatic cold after Washington switched recognition to Beijing in 1979, is concerned its chances of buying the Aegis may be compromised by U.S. eagerness to get back the plane and crew.

Taiwan Premier Chang Chun-Hsiung instructed cabinet ministries last week to try to "prevent communist China from using this incident to demand a quid pro quo from the United States that would harm our interests".

But other analysts argue that China's dragging of feet on returning the U.S. air crew would only help convince Bush of the arguments in favor of selling Taiwan high-tech weapons.

"Tension with China will be there with or without the Aegis," said Liao, the researcher of Strategic Studies.

Some analysts said it was only a matter of time before Taiwan gets the Aegis. In the meantime, the United States may sell Kidd-class destroyers to the island this year.

"If Taiwan does not get the Aegis this year, it does not necessarily mean that Taiwan will not get it in the future," said Yang of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies.

Balance Tilting?

The Aegis, mounted aboard Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, is the most advanced weapon on Taiwan's shopping list and the most expensive at nearly $1 billion per ship.

It features a phased array radar designed to track more than 100 targets simultaneously from the wavetops to the stratosphere.

(Reuter)