UKUnemployment Claims Seen Rising for Third Month

January 16, 2002 - 0:0
LONDON Key data on Britain's labour market is expected to show on Wednesday that the number of people claiming unemployment benefits rose for a third consecutive month, something unseen in over nine years.

Economists polled by Reuters last week said they expected the claimant count for December to have risen by 7,400 to around 966,500, following a rise of 4,800 in November. The unemployment rate was expected to stay steady at 3.2 percent.

The world's fourth largest economy saw unemployment fall to a 26-year low of 3.1 percent last July following nine years of expansion after the early 1990s recession.

However, claimant counts have since picked up again as the effects of a U.S.-led global economic slowdown and a slump in the manufacturing sector have seen thousands of jobs shed.

Telecoms equipment maker Marconi Plc .L said on Tuesday it may have to cut a further 4,000 jobs on top of 9,000 redundancies last year, and the Engineering Employers' Federation said this month that manufacturers were unlikely to see any recovery until the second half of 2002.

But, for retailers and service sector firms, low interest rates and soaring house prices are helping to maintain a consumer spending spree on the High Street, contrasting starkly with the environment for manufacturers.

Banking group Abbey National Plc ANL.L said in December it would hire up to 600 new staff, while retailer Tesco Plc .L has announced plans to add 8,000 jobs in the UK this year.

However, Bank of England Governor Sir Edward George hinted this week that any immediate rise in interest rates to curb excessive consumer spending was unlikely, due to the gradual rise in jobless numbers.

George had previously said rates could go up if consumer spending did not moderate of its own accord, but the central bank governor said on Monday he felt higher unemployment numbers would eventually see consumer confidence cool off.

Economists also feel that the gradual rise in unemployment numbers and the manufacturing slump should ease any concerns the central bank may have that consumer confidence could eventually lead to higher inflation.

"Signs that the loosening of the labor market is accelerating would clearly help ease fears raised by policymakers that consumer spending is accelerating out of control", capital economics analysts Roger Bootle and Jonathan Loynes said in a research note.

Average earnings growth during November is expected to remain unchanged from October's levels at 4.4 percent.