Just a Blip or Is UK's Blair Losing His Touch?

June 22, 2003 - 0:0
PORTO CARRAS, Greece -- British Prime Minister Tony Blair may have had a "good war", as the saying goes, but a bad political run since the Iraq conflict has some observers wondering whether he is losing his touch.

Blair's dogged conviction that going to war in Iraq was the right thing to do won him widespread respect, even among some fervent war critics, and he enjoyed a "Baghdad bounce" in opinion polls.

But since then, he has been on the defensive over the failure to find any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq -- London and Washington's main justification for the war, Reuters reported. Simultaneously, Blair has had to fend off criticism over a recent government reshuffle that most British media, the opposition and even some of his ministers agree was poorly handled.

The prime minister took a battering for announcing sweeping changes to Britain's unwritten constitution and judicial system without prior consultation.

Polls show that trust in Blair -- formerly known as "Teflon Tony" for his unassailable ratings -- has slumped on the back of allegations he "sexed up" evidence of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.

Blair's office rejects the allegations, but they refuse to go away.

Mark Leonard, director of the Foreign Policy Centre, a think-tank, says the recent political strife could just be a blip as the government machine gets back to normal after Iraq.

But Paul Whiteley, politics professor at Essex University, disagrees. He believes the row over Blair's handling over the Iraq war could still deliver a mortal blow to his government.

"It's early to say, but I think the Iraq war was Tony Blair's poll tax," said Whiteley, referring to the unpopular tax policy that led to the demise of former Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. "In a world where 'Trust me, I'm the prime minister' no longer works, the question is how is he going to manage?"

Even on the world stage, where Blair gave a commanding performance over Iraq, his footing is looking less secure.

Britain recently opted to stay outside the European Union's most important economic project, the euro, for the time being, adding to the impression that it is a semi-detached member of the bloc despite Blair's ambition to be at its center. --- BLAIR SNUBBED ---

Analysts say London could find itself sidelined on economic decisions, particularly as the euro members consolidate their union and as the Franco-German axis finds its feet again.

At the EU summit in Greece this week, Britain failed to win EU endorsement for test runs of safe areas for refugees in regions of conflict after many EU leaders snubbed the plan.

One EU diplomat said Blair's support for the United States over the Iraq war, which was opposed by many in the bloc, "has not improved the situation for him in the EU".

On the EU's first draft constitution, however, Blair can be satisfied that Britain largely got its way.

"It is quite important that when we in Britain enter into these European debates and win them, that we recognize that we win them," he told reporters at the summit.

But back home, Blair knows he must now deliver on pledges to improve schools, hospitals and transport -- at the core of his Labor Party's manifesto promise -- if he is to win a third term.